干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 基于Markov模型的植被覆盖动态变化预测研究

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	基于Markov模型的植被覆盖动态变化预测研究
其他题名	Research on Prediction of Dynamic Change in Vegetation Coverage Based on Markov Model
	玛丽艳姑丽·阿西穆; 塔西甫拉提·特依拜; 买买提·沙吾提; 张飞
来源期刊	水土保持研究
ISSN	1005-3409
出版年	2013
卷号	20 期号:1 页码:121-125
中文摘要	实时监测植被动态变化在干旱区绿洲生态环境研究中具有重要意义。以渭干河库车河流域的绿洲地区为研究区,利用多期遥感影像数据,定量分析渭干河库车河流域绿洲植被覆盖度的多年变化,同时利Markov模型进行研究区未来25a内的植被覆盖度动态变化预测。结果表明:近21a来,研究区植被覆盖度总体呈现波动降低趋势,19892011年,高覆盖度植被从38.038 9万hm2减少至27.109 6万hm~2,低覆盖度植被从19.002 9万hm2增加至19.533 4万hm~2,极低覆盖度植被从6.409 6万hm~2增加至6.666 2万hm~2,中覆盖度植被面积变化幅度不大;未来25a后的植被覆盖度变化预测结果显示:高覆盖度植被面积呈下降趋势,中覆盖度植被、低覆盖度植被及极低覆盖度植被均呈上升趋势。上述研究结果说明绿洲植被整体呈现退化的趋势。研究结果可以为该区域植被恢复,盐渍化和荒漠化防治提供理论支撑。
英文摘要	Dynamically monitoring the vegetation change is important in the research of economical environment of the arid area oasis.The delta oasis of Weigan and Kuqa rivers was selected as the research area,and the dynamically change of the vegetation coverage was quantitatively analyzed by using the remote sensing image data.At the same time,the prediction of the dynamically change of the vegetation coverage in the next 25aof the research area was made by using the Markov Model over the past years.The results show that research area presented a fluctuating decrease trend during the recent 21years.From the year 1989to 2001, the area of high coverage vegetation reduced from 3.804105 hm~2 to 2.711105 hm~2,and the very low coverage vegetation increased from 6.410104 hm~2 to 6.666104 hm~2,low coverage vegetation increased from 1.900105 hm~2 to 1.953105 hm~2,mid coverage vegetation changed very little.The result of the prediction of the next 25years showed mid coverage vegetation,the area and the percentage of high coverage vegetation represented the decrease trend,however the mid coverage vegetation,low coverage vegetation and the very low coverage vegetation presented the increase trend.All these results showed that oasis presented degradation of the overall trend.The research results can provide a theoretical support for vegetation restoration and salinization,desertification of the research area.
中文关键词	遥感 ; 归一化植被指数(NDVI) ; 植被覆盖度 ; Markov预测模型
英文关键词	remote sensing normalized difference vegetation index vegetation coverage Markov prediction model
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	PLANT SCIENCES
WOS研究方向	Plant Sciences
CSCD记录号	CSCD:4792292
来源机构	新疆大学
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/230181
作者单位	新疆大学资源与环境科学学院, 绿洲生态教育部重点实验室, 乌鲁木齐, 新疆 830046, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	玛丽艳姑丽·阿西穆,塔西甫拉提·特依拜,买买提·沙吾提,等. 基于Markov模型的植被覆盖动态变化预测研究[J]. 新疆大学,2013,20(1):121-125.
APA	玛丽艳姑丽·阿西穆,塔西甫拉提·特依拜,买买提·沙吾提,&张飞.(2013).基于Markov模型的植被覆盖动态变化预测研究.水土保持研究,20(1),121-125.
MLA	玛丽艳姑丽·阿西穆,et al."基于Markov模型的植被覆盖动态变化预测研究".水土保持研究 20.1(2013):121-125.