干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 基于STIRPAT模型分析水资源控制下武威市城市发展模式

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	基于STIRPAT模型分析水资源控制下武威市城市发展模式
其他题名	Developing model of Wuwei City under the control of water resources with the STIRPAT model
	金淑婷; 石培基; 李博; 魏伟
来源期刊	干旱区地理
ISSN	1000-6060
出版年	2013
卷号	36 期号:5 页码:875-882
中文摘要	通过利用IGT方程分析1997-2010年武威市经济发展对水资源消费总量的影响,在此基础上利用STIRPAT模型定量分析水资源消费总量与人口、富裕度、城市化水平以及技术进步之间的关系,并经岭回归拟合发现人口数量、人均GDP、城市化水平和技术进步每发生1%的变化,将引起水资源消费总量相应发生0.790 1%,-(0.014 1+0.001 8 ln A)%、-0.088 0%和0.031 2%的变化。在上述模型分析的基础上,以武威市为例,通过设置10种不同的发展情景,分析了在何种情景下最有利于降低水资源消费总量。结果表明:当经济保持高速增长、城市化进程加快、节水技术取得较大进步且人口实行高控制时,最有利于武威市降低水资源消费总量,此时武威市2015年和2020年的水资源消费总量分别为188 927.2710~4 m~3和184 409.7910~4 m~3。
英文摘要	With the rapid economic development and the increasing demand of water resources, the study on what kind of development pattern arid region of China should take to slow down the water consumption of economy development has become one hot spot of the current research. In this paper, using the IGT equation, the impact of the economic development on water consumption in Wuwei City, Gansu Province, China, from 1997 to 2010 was analyzed. Based on this, using the STIRPAT model, this study analyzed quantitatively the relationship between the total consumption of the water resources and population, affluence, the level of the urbanization and technological advances. Ridge regression results showed that 1% change of population, per capita GDP, urbanization level and technology advance would cause a corresponding occurrence of 0.790 1%, -(0.014 1 +0.0018 In A)%, -0.088 0% and 0.031 2% change in the total consumption of the water resources. Based on the analysis of the above model, this paper took Wuwei City in Shiyang River Basin as an example and set 10 developing scenarios and analyzed the best model of reducing the total consumption of water resources. Results show that under the scenario of keeping the economy in high-speed growth, speeding the process of urbanization, making great progress in water-saving and high population control, it would be best for Wuwei to reduce the total consumption of water resources, and the total consumption of water resources in 2015, 2020 would be 188 927.27 and 184 409.79 ten thousand cubic meters, respectively. Although the total consumption of water resources has been reduced, it still cannot effectively change the situation that the groundwater overexploited and the ecological security in Wuwei City cannot be effectively contained, Wuwei City’s environmental load will remain in a state of high alert for a long time. In this paper, the STIRPAT model and ridge regression fitting were used to find out how to alleviate the pressure of the water resources in Wuwei City, data analysis is well-found, but it is lack of the practical guiding significance. Although it is an innovation point that the STIRPAT model was used to research the best approach for Wuwei to reduce the total consumption of water resources in this paper, there are still some shortages, such as all the factors (P, A, U, T) are how to influence the total water resources and each factor is how to influence each other, it needs to be further in-depth researched.
中文关键词	STIRPAT模型 ; 水资源消费量 ; 发展情景 ; 环境库兹涅茨曲线 ; 武威市
英文关键词	STIRPAT model water consumption developing scenario environmental Kuznets curve Wuwei City
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	ECONOMICS
WOS研究方向	Business & Economics
CSCD记录号	CSCD:4960930
来源机构	西北师范大学
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/229550
作者单位	西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院, 兰州, 甘肃 730070, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	金淑婷,石培基,李博,等. 基于STIRPAT模型分析水资源控制下武威市城市发展模式[J]. 西北师范大学,2013,36(5):875-882.
APA	金淑婷,石培基,李博,&魏伟.(2013).基于STIRPAT模型分析水资源控制下武威市城市发展模式.干旱区地理,36(5),875-882.
MLA	金淑婷,et al."基于STIRPAT模型分析水资源控制下武威市城市发展模式".干旱区地理 36.5(2013):875-882.