干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 气候变化情景下中国自然生态系统脆弱性研究

Arid

	气候变化情景下中国自然生态系统脆弱性研究
其他题名	Responses of vulnerability for natural ecosystem to climate change in China
	赵东升; 吴绍洪
来源期刊	地理学报
ISSN	0375-5444
出版年	2013
卷号	68 期号:5 页码:602-610
中文摘要	本研究以动态植被模型LPJ为主要工具,以区域气候模式工具PRECIS产生的A2、B2和A1B情景气候数据为输入,模拟了未来气候变化下中国自然生态系统的变化状况,应用脆弱性评价模型,评估中国自然生态系统响应未来气候变化的脆弱性。结果表明:未来气候变化情景下中国东部地区脆弱程度呈上升趋势,西部地区呈下降趋势,但总体上,中国自然生态系统的脆弱性格局没有大的变化,仍呈现西高东低、北高南低的特点。受气候变化影响严重的地区是东北和华北地区,而青藏高原区南部和西北干旱区受气候变化影响,脆弱程度明显减轻。气候变化情景下的近期气候变化对我国生态系统的影响不大,但中、远期气候变化对生态系统的负面影响较大,特别是在自然条件相对较好的东部地区,脆弱区面积增加较多。
英文摘要	Vulnerability of natural ecosystem to climate change is scientific basis for adapting and mitigating climate change, and is one of the important issues in the area of climate change and ecology. In this study, LPJ, a modified dynamical vegetation model according to features of China’s natural ecosystems, was employed to simulate ecosystem dynamics under A2, B2 and A1B emission scenarios generated by PRECES (Providing Regional Climate for Impacts Studies) system. Using a vulnerability assessment model, vulnerability of natural ecosystem against climate change was evaluated in the future. Results suggest that vulnerability for China’s natural ecosystems may strengthen in the east and weaken in the west, but the pattern of ecosystem vulnerability in China, decline from southeast to northeast, would not be altered under climate change. Ecosystem rising vulnerability may be mainly observed in temperate humid/sub-humid region and warm temperate humid/sub-humid region. Ecosystem decreasing vulnerability may be found in arid region of Northwest China and Tibetan Plateau region. In the near-term scale, natural ecosystem in China may be slightly affected by climate change. However, in mid-term and long-term scales, there may be severely adverse effect. Particularly, in the east with better water and thermal condition.
中文关键词	气候变化 ; 自然生态系统 ; 脆弱性 ; 区域气候情景
英文关键词	climate change natural ecosystem vulnerability regional climate scenarios
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
CSCD记录号	CSCD:4847749
来源机构	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/229343
作者单位	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京 100101, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	赵东升,吴绍洪. 气候变化情景下中国自然生态系统脆弱性研究[J]. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,2013,68(5):602-610.
APA	赵东升,&吴绍洪.(2013).气候变化情景下中国自然生态系统脆弱性研究.地理学报,68(5),602-610.
MLA	赵东升,et al."气候变化情景下中国自然生态系统脆弱性研究".地理学报 68.5(2013):602-610.