干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 基于能值的绿洲农业可持续发展情景分析以新疆伊宁县为例

Arid

	基于能值的绿洲农业可持续发展情景分析以新疆伊宁县为例
其他题名	Emergy Based Sustainability Scenario Analysis of Oasis Agricultural Systems: A Case Study from Xinjiang, China
	张伟 ; 王秀红 ; 张宏业
来源期刊	资源与生态学报
ISSN	1674-764X
出版年	2012
卷号	3 期号:1 页码:26-32
中文摘要	如何协调干旱区生态环境保护与绿洲农业生态化发展之间的关系,避免绿洲系统的荒漠化,是实现绿洲人地系统可持续发展过程中亟待解决的关键问题。本文以伊宁县为例,利用能值分析和相图理论,深入分析了温带干旱区绿洲农业生产系统的时序演化状况与发展趋势,进而提出了相应的调控措施。研究结论如下:(1)1989-2008年,伊宁县绿洲农业生态系统的能值总投入和总产出均呈持续增长趋势。(2)基于能值指标的可持续性分析表明,目前伊宁县农业生产系统仍处于可持续发展的状态,但可持续发展指数ESI呈现出波动下降的趋势;(3)基于相图理论的可持续线情景分析表明,F导向模式和N导向模式均有其局限性,在伊宁县农业生产系统今后的发展中,应采取R导向模式。即保持系统中当地不可更新资源利用比率的基本稳定,使得经济反馈能值的使用比率和本地不可更新资源的使用比率同步减少,籍此提高当地可更新资源对农产品生产的贡献率,保证系统的可持续发展。
英文摘要	How to coordinate arid eco-environmental protection and oasis agricultural development and avoid desertification is a key problem in achieving the sustainable development of oasis human- earth systems. We analyzed the temporal characteristics and overall tendency of an arid oasis agricultural production system in Yining County, China by means of emergy methods and ternary diagrams theory. From 1989-2008, total emergy input and output of the oasis agricultural system in Yining County had a trend of sustainable development. According to the sustainability analysis with emergy indices, the agricultural production systems in Yining County were still at a sustainable status. However, the emergy-based sustainability index (ESI) followed a decreasing trend. Scenario analysis of the sustainability lines based on ternary diagrams showed that both the F (input from economic component) and N (input from nonrenewable resource) leading modes had limitations in the study case. The agricultural production of Yining County should adopt the R leading mode, in which the percentage of non-renewable resources in the local system will be kept roughly unchanged, while the fraction of purchased inputs and renewable resources will be decreased in synchronism. In this way, the contribution from local renewable resources to agricultural production will be increased, and sustainable development ensured.
中文关键词	干旱区 ; 绿洲 ; 能值分析 ; 相图 ; 情景分析 ; 伊宁县
英文关键词	arid areas oasis emergy analysis ternary diagrams scenario analysis Yining County
语种	英语
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS POLICY
WOS研究方向	Agriculture
CSCD记录号	CSCD:4511343
来源机构	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/229172
作者单位	1.Institute of Remote Sensing and Earth Sciences, College of Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Urban Wetlands and Regional Change, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 311121, China; 2.Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	张伟,王秀红,张宏业. 基于能值的绿洲农业可持续发展情景分析以新疆伊宁县为例[J]. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,2012,3(1):26-32.
APA	张伟,王秀红,&张宏业.(2012).基于能值的绿洲农业可持续发展情景分析以新疆伊宁县为例.资源与生态学报,3(1),26-32.
MLA	张伟,et al."基于能值的绿洲农业可持续发展情景分析以新疆伊宁县为例".资源与生态学报 3.1(2012):26-32.