干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 基于粗糙集与灰色理论的额济纳绿洲稳定性综合评价

Arid

	基于粗糙集与灰色理论的额济纳绿洲稳定性综合评价
其他题名	Evaluation of Oasis Stability in Ejina Based on Rough Set and Grey Theory
	王耀斌; 刘光琇; 冯起; 司建华; 常宗强; 席海洋
来源期刊	资源科学
ISSN	1007-7588
出版年	2012
卷号	34 期号:9 页码:1750-1760
中文摘要	争取绿洲向稳定、有序化方向发展是干旱区人类生存和发展所追求的基础目标。本研究以额济纳绿洲为研究对象,将绿洲系统分为自然资源环境子系统、社会经济子系统及自然灾害子系统,应用粗糙集与灰色理论,建立绿洲稳定性评价指标体系,对1990年-2008年的绿洲稳定性做了综合评价,结果发现:①研究时段内,影响额济纳绿洲稳定性的最重要的3个指标依次为地下水水位埋深、年降水量与狼心山径流量;②研究时段内,若以理论划分2004年为界,1990年-2004年绿洲稳定性呈明显的波动趋势,2005年-2008年绿洲稳定性呈平稳略上升趋势;若以黑河分水2000年为界,1990年-2000年绿洲稳定性指数值呈递减趋势,2001年-2008年却呈明显增加趋势;③绿洲稳定性是一个多因素综合体,单个指标的好坏只能在某方面影响绿洲的稳定性。
英文摘要	Oases are unique landscapes and form the core of human existence and production in arid areas. Oasis ecosystem stability is directly related to regional economic and social sustainable development. Studies of oasis stability are a focus of oasis research, however, the Ejina Oasis has been little studied. Here, we examined the Ejina Oasis and established an evaluation system for oasis stability (natural resources and environment subsystem, socio-economic subsystem, and natural calamity subsystem). A comprehensive evaluation of the oasis was done from 1990 to 2008, looking at the stability of characterization, drive mechanisms, results of previous studies, methods of rough set and the gray theory. The results show that during the observation period the most important indicator affecting oasis stability was water resource class, including the depth of the groundwater (weighting=0.0974), annual precipitation(0.0926) and runoff from Lang-Xin Mountain(0.0902). The number of dust storms, area of desertification, number of windy days, number of frost days and annual evaporation were also important factors. Socioeconomic indicators were the least important (GDP weighting=0.0615; all other factor weightings less than 0.05). The stability of the Ejina Oasis fluctuated from 1990 to 2004, and followed a steady upward trend from 2005 to 2008. The value of the oasis stability index showed a downward trend from 1990 to 2000, and then a clear upward trend from 2001 to 2008. The oasis stability index was lowest in 1992 and 2001 and highest from 2005 to 2008. Oasis stability is dependent on multiple complex factors in which a single indicator can affect oasis stability only in certain aspects. Our findings indicate that a more comprehensive strategy should be developed to restore the ecological environment of the Ejina Oasis.
中文关键词	额济纳绿洲 ; 绿洲稳定性 ; 粗糙集 ; 绿洲评价
英文关键词	Ejina Oasis Oasis stability Rough set Oasis evaluation
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
CSCD记录号	CSCD:4631727
来源机构	中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/229167
作者单位	中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所, 兰州, 甘肃 730000, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	王耀斌,刘光琇,冯起,等. 基于粗糙集与灰色理论的额济纳绿洲稳定性综合评价[J]. 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,2012,34(9):1750-1760.
APA	王耀斌,刘光琇,冯起,司建华,常宗强,&席海洋.(2012).基于粗糙集与灰色理论的额济纳绿洲稳定性综合评价.资源科学,34(9),1750-1760.
MLA	王耀斌,et al."基于粗糙集与灰色理论的额济纳绿洲稳定性综合评价".资源科学 34.9(2012):1750-1760.