干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 基于熵权法的新疆奇台绿洲水资源承载力评价研究

Arid

	基于熵权法的新疆奇台绿洲水资源承载力评价研究
其他题名	Evaluation of water resource carrying capacity of Qitai Oasis in Xinjiang by entropy method
	熊黑钢1 ; 付金花 2; 王凯龙 3
来源期刊	中国生态农业学报
ISSN	1671-3990
出版年	2012
卷号	20 期号:10 页码:1382-1387
中文摘要	针对新疆奇台绿洲水资源日益短缺及生态环境逐渐恶化的现实情况,本文通过构建水资源承载力研究的指标体系,应用主成分分析法选取主要指标,并采用熵权法进行赋权,依据水资源承载力综合模型对其水资源承载能力予以分析评价,以期使该地区水资源得到合理利用,并为绿洲可持续发展提供支撑。研究结果表明:该区1993年水资源承载力综合得分0.83,1998年为0.75,至2005年达到研究时段的最低值0.66,反映出其水资源承载力不断下降,且近几年下降速度加快。后期(2003-2005年)水资源承载力综合得分年均下降率是早期(1993-1998年)的47.96倍,为中期(1999-2002年)的8.39倍。奇台绿洲水资源承载力主要受经济与生态环境、人口、农业用水、水资源利用程度、气候状况5大成分影响。其中前三者累计贡献率为73.58%,反映出经济迅猛发展、生态环境恶化、人口数量增加以及农业灌溉水激增是导致水资源可进一步利用潜力减小的最主要因子。
英文摘要	The reality is that there today exists not only an increasing scarcity of water resources, but also worsening ecology of the Qitai Oasis in Xinjiang. It is thus urgent to build an index system of water resources carrying capacity. So, in this paper, principal component and entropy analyses were used to select and empower the main indexes of water resources carrying capacity in the oasis region. Water resources carrying capacity of Qitai Oasis was analyzed and evaluated to facilitate not only rational use of water resources in the oasis region but also sustainable development of the oasis ecology. The results showed that water resources carrying capacity in the oasis region was 0.83 and 0.75 in 1993 and 1998, respectively. It dropped to the lowest value of 0.66 in 2005. The trend of decline in water resources carrying capacity accelerated with time. The rate of decline in 2003 to 2005 was 47.96 times as much as that in 1993 to 1998 and 8.93 times that in 1999 to 2002. Qitai Oasis water resources carrying capacity was mainly driven by five main factors, including economic and ecological factor, population factor, agricultural water use factor, climatic factor, and other water uses factor. The accumulated contribution rate of the three former factors was 73.58%. This was a solid reflection of the negative effects of rapid economic development, increasing population and agricultural irrigation, and worsening ecological environment on the availability of water resources and the increasing potential for further water saving in the oasis region.
中文关键词	绿洲 ; 水资源承载力 ; 熵权法 ; 主成分分析
英文关键词	Oasis Water resource carrying capacity Entropy method Principal component analysis
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	ENGINEERING MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向	Engineering
CSCD记录号	CSCD:4662681
来源机构	新疆大学
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/229101
作者单位	1.北京联合大学应用文理学院, 教育部绿洲生态重点实验室, 北京 100191, 中国; 2.教育部绿洲生态重点实验室, 教育部绿洲生态重点实验室, 乌鲁木齐, 新疆 830046, 中国; 3.新疆大学资源与环境学院, 教育部绿洲生态重点实验室, 乌鲁木齐, 新疆 830046, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	熊黑钢,付金花,王凯龙. 基于熵权法的新疆奇台绿洲水资源承载力评价研究[J]. 新疆大学,2012,20(10):1382-1387.
APA	熊黑钢,付金花,&王凯龙.(2012).基于熵权法的新疆奇台绿洲水资源承载力评价研究.中国生态农业学报,20(10),1382-1387.
MLA	熊黑钢,et al."基于熵权法的新疆奇台绿洲水资源承载力评价研究".中国生态农业学报 20.10(2012):1382-1387.