干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 水资源承载力约束下小城镇经济发展的系统动力学仿真

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	水资源承载力约束下小城镇经济发展的系统动力学仿真
其他题名	System Dynamics Simulation of Small Towns’ Economy under the Constraints of Water Resources’ Carrying Capacity
	卢超 1; 王蕾娜 2; 张东山 3; 张亚雷 2
来源期刊	资源科学
ISSN	1007-7588
出版年	2011
卷号	33 期号:8 页码:1498-1504
中文摘要	水资源承载力是影响缺水小城镇经济发展的重要因素。构建小城镇地区水资源和经济社会耦合研究的系统动力学模型,能够动态分析和预测水资源承载力约束下小城镇经济持续发展的规模、产业结构及人口数量。以我国内陆缺水小城镇内蒙古自治区太仆寺旗为例的系统动力学仿真和情景分析表明:随着经济规模的扩张和人口的增加,太仆寺旗逐渐由工程型缺水转变为资源型缺水;协调发展模式是太仆寺旗在水资源承载力约束下经济社会持续发展的最优选择。同时,论文从调整农业种植结构、调整工业生产结构和建立公民节水体系三方面提出了太仆寺旗构建节水型经济社会体系的对策,可以为小城镇持续发展提供借鉴。
英文摘要	With rapid urbanization and serious water scarcity in China, carrying capacity of water resources has become an important factor affecting economic development of small towns. As the main model to simulate complex giant systems, system dynamics seems to be suitable for long-term, dynamic and macro-quantitative analysis and simulation study. According to the theory of system dynamics, exploring and applying the optimal pattern of economic growth under the constraints of water resources is the key for sustainable development. A complete small towns’ sustainable economic system includes seven sub-systems, i.e., water resources, total economic outputs, population, agriculture, industry, service industry, and ecological environment. Based on the theory dissertated above, first the authors analyzed related factors affecting water resources capacity, involving natural factors (water quantity, water quality, development and utilization levels, the availability of water resources and water self-purification capacity, ecological water requirements, and water conservation, etc) and socio-economic factors (economic scale and industrial structure, technological progress and productivity, population and living standards, market conditions, policies, regulations, psychological factors, and other resource potential, etc). Moreover, this study established a system dynamics model for coupling research on water resources and economy of small towns using Vensim PLE. As a result, the largest economic scale, the best industrial structure, and the reasonable population amounts of sustainable development can be analyzed dynamically and forecasted. Furthermore, this study selected Taipusi County, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region as an example, which is a relative poor and seriously arid small town in middle China. Water resources are the bottleneck restricting the economic and social development of this region. The geographical boundary of this model was the administrative area of Taipusi County. The time period ranged from 2005 to 2020. The main historical data adopted were from 1999 to 2008, and 2005 was set as the base year of simulation. Results show that with the expansion of economic scale and population growth, the type of water shortage of Taipusi County shifted from engineering water shortage to resources water shortage. Neither natural development pattern nor high-speed growth pattern was desirable in the scenario analysis. However, to achieve sustainable development, harmonious development pattern (with a moderate economy and population growth rate and reasonable industry structure) was the optimal choice under the constraints of carrying capacity of water resources of Taipusi County. In addition, from the viewpoint of adjusting the structure of agricultural planting, changing the structure of industrial production and establishing the system of civic water-saving, this paper proposed measures of water-saving of economic and social systems, which can provide reference for the sustainable development of small towns.
中文关键词	水资源承载力 ; 小城镇 ; 系统动力学 ; 仿真
英文关键词	Carrying capacity of water resources Small town System dynamics Simulation
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	ENERGY FUELS
WOS研究方向	Energy & Fuels
CSCD记录号	CSCD:4317615
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/227653
作者单位	1.同济大学经济与管理学院, 上海 200092, 中国; 2.同济大学环境科学与工程学院, 上海 200092, 中国; 3.同济大学现代农业科学与工程研究院, 上海 200092, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	卢超,王蕾娜,张东山,等. 水资源承载力约束下小城镇经济发展的系统动力学仿真[J],2011,33(8):1498-1504.
APA	卢超,王蕾娜,张东山,&张亚雷.(2011).水资源承载力约束下小城镇经济发展的系统动力学仿真.资源科学,33(8),1498-1504.
MLA	卢超,et al."水资源承载力约束下小城镇经济发展的系统动力学仿真".资源科学 33.8(2011):1498-1504.