干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 新疆棉花种植面积的时空变化及适度规模研究

Arid

	新疆棉花种植面积的时空变化及适度规模研究
其他题名	Spatio-temporal dynamics and optimal development scale of cotton industry in Xinjiang
	潘伟; 杨德刚; 杨莉; 肖艳秋; 王国刚; 唐宏
来源期刊	中国生态农业学报
ISSN	1671-3990
出版年	2011
卷号	19 期号:2 页码:415-420
中文摘要	本研究通过对建国以来新疆植棉业的调查数据进行统计分析,探究其时序演变规律和空间分布特点,并运用模糊数学理论和层次分析法,构建植棉规模及其影响因素的交互作用模型,揭示新疆植棉业发展的适度规模?研究结果表明:(1)1949年以来,新疆植棉规模不断扩大,从1949年的33.41103 hm2上升到2007年的1 782.60103 hm2,且表现出明显的阶段性和波动性;三大棉区即南疆棉区?北疆棉区?东疆棉区变化特点各异,其中南疆棉区起主导作用;按绿洲分类棉区中,以塔里木盆地绿洲棉区和西北沿边绿洲棉区变化明显?(2)现有条件下,整个新疆棉花种植经营适度规模以800103~1 000103 hm2为最优,600103~800103 hm2次之,400103~600103 hm2再次之,>1 000*103 hm2最差?该规模标准可作为制定新疆植棉业发展?安排植棉业经济投入和劳动力投入?进一步优化农业产业结构的依据
英文摘要	Using serial statistical data, this paper discussed the spatio-temporal dynamics of cotton plantation in Xinjiang for the period of 1949~2007. Also by using Fuzzy Theory and AHP method,an optimal interaction model between cotton plantation scale and the influencing factors in Xinjiang was constructed. Bused on the study, cotton acreage in Xinjiang had increased from 33.41103 hm2 in 1949 to 1 782.60103 hm2 in 2007.The increase in cotton acreage was mainly characterized by staging and volatility. Tempo-ral dynamics in cotton acreage were different for the main cotton-cultivating areas in South Xinjiang, North Xinjiang and East Xinji-ang. South Xinjiang presented the most obvious dynamics with dominant effect on cotton plantation in Xinjiang. Cotton-cultivating area in Xinjiang was divided into four groups according to oasis location. With different temporal dynamics among groups in cotton acreage, obvious dynamics were observed in Tarim River Basin and Northwest Border Oases. Based on the Fuzzy Theory and AHP analyses, the optimal scale of cotton industry in Xinjiang was 800103~1 000103 hm2 per year. Cultivation scales of 600103~800103 hm2(second place),400103~600103 hm2(third place) and >1 000*103 hm2(last place) were less promising. This was sufficient evidence for choosing a rational scale for cotton production industry in Xinjiang
中文关键词	棉花产业 ; 棉花种植面积 ; 时空变化 ; 适度规模 ; 新疆
英文关键词	Cotton industry Cotton acreage Spatio-temporal dynamics Optimal scale Xinjiang
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	GEOGRAPHY
WOS研究方向	Geography
CSCD记录号	CSCD:4178071
来源机构	中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/227591
作者单位	中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所, 乌鲁木齐, 新疆 830011, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	潘伟,杨德刚,杨莉,等. 新疆棉花种植面积的时空变化及适度规模研究[J]. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,2011,19(2):415-420.
APA	潘伟,杨德刚,杨莉,肖艳秋,王国刚,&唐宏.(2011).新疆棉花种植面积的时空变化及适度规模研究.中国生态农业学报,19(2),415-420.
MLA	潘伟,et al."新疆棉花种植面积的时空变化及适度规模研究".中国生态农业学报 19.2(2011):415-420.