干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): SRES A1B情景下内蒙古地区未来气温、降水变化初步分析

Arid

	SRES A1B情景下内蒙古地区未来气温、降水变化初步分析
其他题名	qAnalysis of Projected Variation on Temperature and Precipitation in Inner Mongolia under SRES A1B Scenario
	马建勇; 许吟隆; 潘婕; 姜江
来源期刊	中国农业气象
ISSN	1000-6362
出版年	2011
卷号	32 期号:4 页码:488-494
中文摘要	利用全球气候模式HadCM3Q0驱动区域气候模式系统PRECIS(Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies)模拟SRES A1B情景下的内蒙古地区气候变化，对气候基准时段（1961 - 1990年）气温和降水的模拟效果及2011 - 2100年的气温、降水变化响应进行了初步分析。结果　表明：对气候基准时段，PRECIS能够模拟出内蒙古地区气温、降水的空间分布及频率分布特征；A1B情景下，未来90a年平均气温高值中心基本位于额济纳旗及呼伦贝尔附近，增温2~5.6°C，低值中心基本位于全区中南部，增温1.4~4.8°C。年际变化上，2011 - 2040年、2041 - 2070年和2071 - 2100年增温显著且各时段30a的平均值较基准时段气温分别升高1.7、3.5和5.1°C。日平均气温的频率分布模拟结果表明，未来发生高温事件的可能性增大；就年降水量而言，内蒙古地区的西部沙漠戈壁地区与呼伦贝尔部分地区呈减少趋势，其余区域未来90a可能增加10% ~ 20%，增加的高值中心位于赤峰及通辽南部附近。年际变化上，2011 - 2040年、2041 - 2070年和2071 - 2100年各时段30a的平均年降水量比气候基准时段增加10.7%、17.1%和14.1%。日降水量频率分布表明，未来发生强降水事件的次数可能增多。
英文摘要	The responses of temperature and precipitation during 1961 - 1990(baseline) and 2011 - 2100 under SRES A1B scenario in Inner Mongolia was analyzed by using the PRECIS (Providing Regional Climate for Impacts Studies), a regional climate model system driven by HadCM3Q0. The results showed that PRECIS might reproduce spatial distribution and frequency distribution of temperature and precipitation in Inner Mongolia during 1961 -1990. Under A1B Scenario, compared with baseline, the high value centers of annual mean temperature would be near Ejina county and Hulunbuir, increasing by 2~5.6°C in next 90 years, and the low value center would be located at central south of Inner Mongolia, increasing by 1.4 ~ 4.8°C. The 30 years average value of annual mean temperature during 2011 - 2040, 2041 - 2070 and 2071 - 2100 would increase by 1.7°C, 3.5°C and 5.1°C, respectively. And the warming tendency of temperature in each period would perform remarkably. Meanwhile, frequency distribution of daily mean temperature indicated that potential possibility of high temperature event might rise. In terms of annual precipitation, regions only in the western desert and parts of Hulunbuir would perform decreased tendency, others would increase by 10%~20% in next 90 years, and the high value centers would be near the south of Chifeng and Tongliao. As far as annual variation be concerned, the 30 years average value of annual precipitation during 2011 - 2040, 2041 - 2070 and 2071 - 2100 would increase by 10.7%, 17.1% and 14.1%, respectively. Compared with baseline, from frequency distribution of future daily precipitation, it showed the occurrence of heavy precipitation events might increase.
中文关键词	内蒙古 ; 气温 ; 降水量
英文关键词	PRECIS SRES A1B PRECIS SRES A1B Inner Mongolia Temperature Precipitation
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
CSCD记录号	CSCD:4356828
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/227465
作者单位	中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所, 农业部农业环境与气候变化重点开放实验室, 北京 100081, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	马建勇,许吟隆,潘婕,等. SRES A1B情景下内蒙古地区未来气温、降水变化初步分析[J],2011,32(4):488-494.
APA	马建勇,许吟隆,潘婕,&姜江.(2011).SRES A1B情景下内蒙古地区未来气温、降水变化初步分析.中国农业气象,32(4),488-494.
MLA	马建勇,et al."SRES A1B情景下内蒙古地区未来气温、降水变化初步分析".中国农业气象 32.4(2011):488-494.