干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 近60 a来玛纳斯河流域气候变化趋势及突变分析

Arid

	近60 a来玛纳斯河流域气候变化趋势及突变分析
其他题名	Analysis of the Climate Change and Abrupt Change in the Manas River Drainage Basin in Recent 60 Years
	王东方 1; 任刚 2; 张凤华 1
来源期刊	新疆农业科学
ISSN	1001-4330
出版年	2011
卷号	48 期号:8 页码:1531-1537
中文摘要	【目的】气候变化是21世纪人类面临的最大环境问题之一。其中以干旱区较为明显,而新疆是最为突出的地区之一。【方法】以中亚典型冰川融化区玛纳斯河流域为例,运用线性回归及Mann - Kendall趋势检验方法分析其1956～2010年气温及降水资料的变化趋势和突变点。【结果】近60 a来玛纳斯河流域经历了一个增温趋湿的过程,增加幅度分别在0.44℃/10 a和12,6 mm/10 a；春、夏、秋、冬四季增温幅度分别为0． 50、0. 21、0.52和0.52℃/10 a,降水倾向率分别为2.44、3.22、2.76和3.64 mm/10 a；趋势突变检验分析表明：流域内年平均气温在1980s明显的增温过程,突变点在1989年,四季突变点分别发生在1995、1986、1996和 1987年。年降水量突变也发生在1980s后期,四季降水量M-K检验表明秋冬突变点分别发生在1983和 1997年,春夏没有发生突变。【结论】研究结果对全面认识及预测干旱区年际及季节气候变化有一定借鉴意义。
英文摘要	[Objective and Method] Global climate change is the gravest environmental problem that human has ever faced. The climate change in China is similar to global change but is most significant in its arid land. Xinjiang is among the most eminent arid region. In this study, the Manas River Valley, which is the typical inland river formed from glacier - melted water in the Central Asia, was chosen as the sample. The temperature and precipitation change trend from 1956 to 2010 were analyzed by using linear regression analysis and Man - Kendall trend text. [Result] The results show the mean climate generally trended to be warm and humid in recent 60 years, and the rate of increase were 0. 44℃/10 a and 12. 6 mm/10a; The temperature trend rates of spring, summer, autumn and winter respectively were 0. 50℃/10 a, 0. 21℃/10 a, 0. 52℃/10 a, 0.52℃/10 a, and the precipitation trend rate were 2.44 mm/10 a, 3.22 mm/10 a, 2.76 mm/10 a, 3.64 mm/10 a. The mean annual temperature of the Basin revealed a obvious increasing trend in 1980s. The point of abrupt change was in 1989, and the difference seasonal abrupt change of annual average temperature occurred in 1995, 1986, 1996 and 1987, respectively. The annual precipitation abrupt change also occurred in the late 1980s, and the points of abrupt change in autumn and winter occurred increased at 1983 and 1997, but there were not abrupt changes in spring and summer. [Conclusion] The findings are meaningful for us to have a comprehensive understanding of the climate change to predict the annual and seasonal climate change in the arid land.
中文关键词	趋势分析 ; 气候变化 ; 玛纳斯河流域 ; 干旱区
英文关键词	Mann - Kendall trend analysis Mann - Kendall climatic change Manas River Drainage Basin arid region
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	AGRICULTURE MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向	Agriculture
CSCD记录号	CSCD:4314947
来源机构	石河子大学
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/227284
作者单位	1.石河子大学, 新疆兵团绿洲生态农业重点实验室, 石河子, 新疆 832003, 中国; 2.石河子气象局, 石河子, 新疆 832003, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	王东方,任刚,张凤华. 近60 a来玛纳斯河流域气候变化趋势及突变分析[J]. 石河子大学,2011,48(8):1531-1537.
APA	王东方,任刚,&张凤华.(2011).近60 a来玛纳斯河流域气候变化趋势及突变分析.新疆农业科学,48(8),1531-1537.
MLA	王东方,et al."近60 a来玛纳斯河流域气候变化趋势及突变分析".新疆农业科学 48.8(2011):1531-1537.