干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 基于BP模型的延河流域社会经济需水预测

Arid

	基于BP模型的延河流域社会经济需水预测
其他题名	The prediction of water demand for socioeconomic development in Yanhe watershed based on Back-Propagation Network
	王丽霞 1; 任志远 2; 孔金玲 1
来源期刊	干旱区资源与环境
ISSN	1003-7578
出版年	2011
卷号	25 期号:4 页码:106-110
中文摘要	以延河流域为例,运用主成分分析法筛选出影响流域社会经济需水的主要指标,并根据1980-2000年各项指标的统计数据,在Matlab平台下,采用具有自学习,自适应特点的BP神经网络模型,预测了流域在2010,2020以及2030年的社会经济需水量,以期为完善流域水资源信息系统,平衡水资源供给与需求,实现未来规划年水资源合理调配做出科学指导.结果表明:随着流域人口的持续增长和经济的快速发展,未来年其社会经济各项需水量均呈现逐年增加的趋势.2010-2030年,流域居民的生活需水将由1785.40万m3增加为3231.98万m3,而且城镇居民的需水百分比不断增大;农业生产需水将由1018.05万m3增加为1193.27万m3,主要原因在于农业内部结构中林果产业和畜牧业等相对高用水产业比重有所增加;工业生产需水将由2741.16万m3增加为2853.41万m3,集中表现为高用水工业生产需水增加迅速
英文摘要	In this research, Yanhe watershed which is as the representative arid and semi-arid region is chosen to study. We firstly select the main indices that influence the water need for socioeconomic development by using principal component analysis. Additionally, based on these indices from 1980-2000,we predict and analyze the water need for socioeconomic development in the year of 2010,2020 and 2030 by employing the Back-Propagation Network at the Matlab worktable. These jobs are important to perfect the water resource information system, balance the supply and requirement of water resource and allocate it scientifically. The results show:(1) In the future, the water demand for socioeconomic progress will increase year by year with the development of population and economy.(2) During 2010-2030, the water demand for people life will increase from 1785.40104m3 to 3231.98104m3, and the proportion of water demand for city life will ascend continuously;the water demand for agriculture production will increase from 1018.05104m3 to 1193.27104m3, which is because of the expansion of forestry and stockbreeding;the water demand for industry production will befrom 2741.16104m3 to 2853.41104m3, which is due to the augment of some industrial departments needing more water
中文关键词	延河流域 ; 主成分分析 ; BP模型 ; 社会经济需水
英文关键词	Yanhe watershed principal component analysis Back-Propagation Network water demand for socioeconomic development
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	ENGINEERING MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向	Engineering
CSCD记录号	CSCD:4141616
来源机构	陕西师范大学
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/226575
作者单位	1.长安大学地球科学与资源学院, 西安, 陕西 710054, 中国; 2.陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院, 西安, 陕西 710062, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	王丽霞,任志远,孔金玲. 基于BP模型的延河流域社会经济需水预测[J]. 陕西师范大学,2011,25(4):106-110.
APA	王丽霞,任志远,&孔金玲.(2011).基于BP模型的延河流域社会经济需水预测.干旱区资源与环境,25(4),106-110.
MLA	王丽霞,et al."基于BP模型的延河流域社会经济需水预测".干旱区资源与环境 25.4(2011):106-110.