干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 近60a三工河流域耕地利用动态变化与驱动力分析

Arid

	近60a三工河流域耕地利用动态变化与驱动力分析
其他题名	Dynamic change and driving forces of cultivated land use in Sangong River Basin in recent 60 yeas
	唐宏; 张新焕; 杨德刚; 陈大波
来源期刊	干旱区地理
ISSN	1000-6060
出版年	2011
卷号	34 期号:5 页码:843-850
中文摘要	基于近60 a耕地利用相关数据，从耕地规模、结构和效益分析三工河流域耕地利用动态变化，并利用回归模型和灰色关联方法对耕地利用变化的驱动机制进行分析。结果表明:(1)三工河流域耕地面积总体呈增加趋势，人均耕地则趋于下降；种植业结构变化趋势与全疆吻合，由以粮食为主向粮食、经济作物并重转变；农作物单位面积产量趋于上升，单位面积耕地产值也持续上升，耕地产值效益相对指数波动较大，整体耕地利用效益低于全疆平均水平。(2)人口增长及人口增长所造成的粮食需求增加是导致耕地面积增加的根本原因，但政策因素也不容忽视；人口密度是影响耕地利用效益最主要的驱动因子，种植业产值、从业人员数、农业机械总动力、非农人口比重等与单位面积耕地产值为较强关联，粮经播种面积比的关联度最低。
英文摘要	As a typical area of Mountainous - Oasis - Desert System in arid zone,where the ecological environment is fragile and sensitive,Sangong River Basin has a strong regional differences in land use.Study on the spatio-temporal variation and its driving forces of cultivated land use in Sangong River Basin,and analyzing the relationship between cultivated land use and natural conditions and socio-economic development,is of great benefit to use the cultivated land reasonably,optimization land use structure,guarantee safety of grain production and ecological,and Provide recommendations for policy formulation.Based on the data of cultivated land use in 1949 -2008,the article analyzes the dynamic changes of cultivated land use in Sangong River Basin from land size,land structure and land use efficiency.Regression model was applied to analyze the change of population size and land size,and gray relative analysis was applied to analyze relationship between cultivated land use efficiency and their impact factors.The results show as follows:(1)the cultivated land area of Sangong River Basin tends to increase,and the trend is varied in different stages,but the per capita cultivated land area tends to decline.The variation trend of crop planting structure is consistent with that of Xinjiang,which changes from grain-based to common development of food crops and cash crops.Crop yield per unit area tends to increase,where the yield per unit area of grain crops and oil bearing crops are higher than the average level of Xinjiang,yield of beetroots has greater fluctuations,and yield per unit area of cotton is much lower than Xinjiang.Value of output per unit area grows continued,the relative index of which fluctuates seriously,and the benefit of cultivated land use is lower than the average level of Xinjiang.(2)Population growth and the increased demand for food with it are the basic reason which led to the increasing of cultivated land,but considered the effect of policy factors,the fitting of S-shaped curve is more credibility to analyze the relationship of population and cultivated land area.Population density is the most important driving that affects the efficiency of cultivated land use.Value of output per unit area has strong correlation with crop production output value,number of employees,agricultural machinery power and proportion of non-agricultural population,but the lowest correlation with the proportion of grains and economic crops.
中文关键词	耕地利用 ; 动态变化 ; 驱动力 ; 灰色关联分析 ; 三工河流域
英文关键词	cultivated land use dynamic change driving forces gray relational analysis Sangong River Basin
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS POLICY
WOS研究方向	Agriculture
CSCD记录号	CSCD:4327936
来源机构	中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/226484
作者单位	中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所, 乌鲁木齐, 新疆 830011, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	唐宏,张新焕,杨德刚,等. 近60a三工河流域耕地利用动态变化与驱动力分析[J]. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,2011,34(5):843-850.
APA	唐宏,张新焕,杨德刚,&陈大波.(2011).近60a三工河流域耕地利用动态变化与驱动力分析.干旱区地理,34(5),843-850.
MLA	唐宏,et al."近60a三工河流域耕地利用动态变化与驱动力分析".干旱区地理 34.5(2011):843-850.