干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 气候变化对石羊河,大凌河流域灌溉玉米生产的影响

Arid

	气候变化对石羊河,大凌河流域灌溉玉米生产的影响
其他题名	Impacts of climate change on irrigated maize production in Shiyang and Daling River Basins
	熊伟 1; 冯颖竹 2; 高清竹 1; 李迎春 1
来源期刊	干旱区地理
ISSN	1000-6060
出版年	2011
卷号	34 期号:1 页码:150-159
中文摘要	全球气候变化及其影响越来越受到广泛关注,生态环境已相对恶化的地区未来将可能更加脆弱.选取生态环境已十分脆弱的石羊河和大凌河流域,采用区域气候模式与CERES-Maize模型相结合的方法,模拟分析了基准气候(BS,1961-1990年)和A2,B2两种气候变化情景下2011-2100年2个流域灌溉玉米生产的变化,以了解未来气候变化对我国生态脆弱区农业生产的影响.结果表明,如果保持现有的生产状况,气候变化将导致石羊河,大凌河流域灌溉玉米稳产风险及低产出现的概率加大,给农业生产带来一定的经济损失,其中A2情景对玉米产量的负面影响大于B2情景.CO2肥效作用可以一定程度上缓解这种负面影响.未来两个流域玉米实际蒸散量和灌溉量总体上都表现出降低的趋势,考虑了CO2肥效后降低幅度更大,可能在一定程度上缓解目前玉米生产的用水矛盾.结合模拟结果,研究提出了2个流域未来可能采取的适应措施
英文摘要	Climate change and its impacts receive great concern in both global and regional scale. In China, the impacts in arid and semi-arid areas in northern China bear greater attentions due to the vulnerable ecosystem and higher magnitude of climate change in these areas. Agriculture in northern part of China with vulnerable ecosystem is becoming more susceptible to climate change in the future. By using the modeling approaches,we investigated the impacts of climate change on irrigated maize production in two typical vulnerable basins: Shiyang River basin and Daling River basin. Regional climate model PRECIS(Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies) and CERES(Crop-Environment Resource Synthesis)-Maize crop model were linked to simulate irrigated maize growth under baseline(BS,1961-1990) and two climate change scenarios(A2 and B2 2011-2100).Day to maturity, yield, evapotranspiration(ET) and irrigation demand are retrieved from simulations to analyze the responses of maize growth to climate change. Changes in monetary benefits of maize production are estimated based on simulated yields, inputs and assumed unchanged prices. Possible adaptation options are prescribed according to the changes in yields, benefits and climate. Results demonstrate that climate change poses negative influences on maize production in the two basins, indicating by increased possibility of lower yields and enhanced yield variability, consequently induces farmers’ monetary loss in maize cultivation if present agronomic practices are kept unchanged in the future. Climate change scenario A2 produces greater negative effects than B2, particularly in the 2080s, due to its higher magnitude of changes in temperature and precipitation. CO2 fertilization effect mitigates the decreases in yields and reduces the yield variability to some extent, which is explained by the increased photosynthesis and decreased ET under higher CO2 concentration. ET and irrigation demand during the whole maize growth period are simulated to decrease in the future in the two basins. The decreases become substantial when including the CO2 fertilization effect in the simulation. These decreases in ET and irrigation demand might alleviate the water scarcity in the two basins, partially help to resolve the water unbalance between supply and demand. Based on the simulation results, possible adaptation measures such as new maize cultivation with longer growth period, later sowing, etc.are suggested for the basins. Uncertainties lie implicitly in the study, including climate change scenarios, crop model and processes related to simulation, and neglecting some important responses, such as automatic adaptation of crop to climate, etc.which need further investigating in the future
中文关键词	气候变化情景 ; 石羊河流域 ; 大凌河流域 ; 玉米生产
英文关键词	climate change scenarios Shiyang River basin Daling River basin maize production
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	AGRICULTURE MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向	Agriculture
CSCD记录号	CSCD:4145120
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/226440
作者单位	1.中国农业科学院农业环境和可持续发展研究所, 农业部农业环境与气候变化重点开放实验室, 北京 100081, 中国; 2.仲凯农业工程大学环境科学与工程系, 广州, 广东 510025, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	熊伟,冯颖竹,高清竹,等. 气候变化对石羊河,大凌河流域灌溉玉米生产的影响[J],2011,34(1):150-159.
APA	熊伟,冯颖竹,高清竹,&李迎春.(2011).气候变化对石羊河,大凌河流域灌溉玉米生产的影响.干旱区地理,34(1),150-159.
MLA	熊伟,et al."气候变化对石羊河,大凌河流域灌溉玉米生产的影响".干旱区地理 34.1(2011):150-159.