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	基于Copula函数的新疆极端降水概率时空变化特征
其他题名	Spatial Variability of Probability Distribution of Extreme Precipitation in Xinjiang
	张强; 李剑锋; 陈晓宏; 白云岗
来源期刊	地理学报
ISSN	0375-5444
出版年	2011
卷号	66 期号:1 页码:3-12
中文摘要	依据新疆地区53个雨量站1957-2009年日降水资料,根据研究需要,定义了8个极端降水指标.运用K-S法确定降水指标最适概率分布函数,确定十年一遇极端降水量值;在此基础上,采用Copula非参数估计方法,通过Akaike Information Criterion(AIC)法确定两降水指标联合分布函数,系统分析极端降水单变量极值及降水极值二维联合概率分布特征,研究新疆地区降水极值概率变化的空间演变特征.研究结果表明:(1)北疆比南疆湿润,北疆发生极端强降水的概率大,而南疆发生极端弱降水的概率较大,另外,相比较而言,山区要比平原降水多;(2)极端强,弱降水同年发生的概率分布特征复杂,从降水天数来看,一年内同时发生长历时强降水与弱降水事件的概率山区较平原大;从极端降水总量来看,同时发生强降水与弱降水事件的概率在平原区较山区为大;从极端降水强度来看,同时发生强度较大的强降水与弱降水事件的概率在天山南坡较其他地区为大;(3)洪旱发生概率与地形有关,天山是洪旱发生的分界线,山区发生洪旱灾害的概率比平原小
英文摘要	Daily precipitation of 53 rain stations in Xinjiang during 1957-2009 is analyzed and 8 extreme precipitation indices are defined in this study. We use Kolmogorov-Smimov method to confirm the most fitted probability distributions and evaluate the ten-year return periods values. Based on that,a nonparametric estimation procedure for Copula and Akaike Information Criterion(AIC) method are used to calculate joint distribution of 2 precipitation indices. Then we comprehensively analyze the spatial variability of probability distribution of one precipitation index and joint distribution of two indices after 1980.The results show that:(1) North Xinjiang is wetter than South Xinjiang. The probability of extreme heavy precipitation is great in North Xinjiang, while that of extreme slight precipitation is great in South Xinjiang. In addition, the precipitation in the Tianshan Mountains is more than that in plain areas.(2) The spatial distribution of the probability of the event that extreme heavy precipitation and extreme slight precipitation occur in the same year is very complex. In terms of the days of precipitation, the probability in Tianshan Mountains is greater than that in plain areas. In terms of the total extreme precipitation,it is greater in plain areas. In terms of the precipitation intensity,it is greater on the southern slope of Tianshan Mountains.(3) There are relations between probability distribution of drought-flood and terrain:Tianshan Mountains is the dividing line of the occurrence of drought-flood, and the plain areas are prone to drought-flood disasters than the mountain regions. This study is of significance to get a better understanding of the drought-flood and scientific water resources management in arid and semi arid areas
中文关键词	极端降水 ; 联合分布 ; 干旱半干旱地区 ; 新疆
英文关键词	Copula extreme precipitation joint distribution Copula arid and semi arid areas Xinjiang
类型	Article
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	Geography
WOS研究方向	Geography
CSCD记录号	CSCD:4126776
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/226271
作者单位	张强, 中山大学水资源与环境系, 华南地区水循环与水安全广东省普通高校重点实验室, 广州, 广东 510275, 中国.; 李剑锋, 中山大学水资源与环境系, 华南地区水循环与水安全广东省普通高校重点实验室, 广州, 广东 510275, 中国.; 陈晓宏, 中山大学水资源与环境系, 华南地区水循环与水安全广东省普通高校重点实验室, 广州, 广东 510275, 中国.; 白云岗, 新疆水利水电科学研究院, 乌鲁木齐, 新疆 830049, 中国.
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	张强,李剑锋,陈晓宏,等. 基于Copula函数的新疆极端降水概率时空变化特征[J],2011,66(1):3-12.
APA	张强,李剑锋,陈晓宏,&白云岗.(2011).基于Copula函数的新疆极端降水概率时空变化特征.地理学报,66(1),3-12.
MLA	张强,et al."基于Copula函数的新疆极端降水概率时空变化特征".地理学报 66.1(2011):3-12.