干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 渭北旱原区域气候变化及其对冬小麦产量的潜在影响

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	渭北旱原区域气候变化及其对冬小麦产量的潜在影响
其他题名	The potential response of wheat yield to regional climate change and meteorological factors in the arid plain north of the Weihe River
	王宝良 1; 潘贤章 1; 梁音 1; 刘通 1; 杨轩 1; 穆欢 1; 苏春丽 1; 关庆伟 2
来源期刊	干旱地区农业研究
ISSN	1000-7601
出版年	2010
卷号	28 期号:1 页码:227-232
中文摘要	对渭北旱原长武地区冬小麦产量与农业气候因子变化进行了通径分析,结果表明,降水和地温是影响该地区冬小麦生产的主要气候因子,播种～出苗期降水对小麦产量的影响较大,在分孽～越冬、返青～拔节、灌浆～乳熟期地温对产量影响更大.该地区近50年来年均气温呈明显上升趋势,而年降水总量总体有减少趋势,波动较大;且在播种～出苗期降水量有减少的趋势,极值出现几率增加,而在返青～拔节期地温有增加的趋势,且2000年后增加幅度增大.因此,在区域气候变化影响下,随着气候变暖和降水量减少及波动性增加,将会导致未来冬小麦产量的波动性增加.
英文摘要	The path analysis was made between meteorological factors and yield of wheat in Changwu County in the arid plain north of the Weihe River. The results showed that: the major meteorological factors which effected yield of wheat were precipitation and surface temperature. Precipitation had great effect during sowing to seedling emergence stage, while surface temperature had even more remarkable effect during the stages of tillering to overwintering, turning green to jointing, and filling to milk. During past 50 years in this area, air temperature had a rising trend significantly, basically identical with global climate change. With great fluctuation, the annual precipitation had a decreasing tendency in general, especially during sowing to emergence period. The ground temperature had an increasing trend during turning green to jointing period, with a greater range after the year of 2000. So it was good to improve the yield of wheat by climate warming, but with a fluctuation of precipitation, it was hard to make sure the yield under the regional climate change.
中文关键词	渭北旱原 ; 小麦 ; 产量 ; 气候因子 ; 通径分析
英文关键词	the arid plain north of the Weihe River wheat yield meteorological factors path analysis
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	AGRICULTURE MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向	Agriculture
CSCD记录号	CSCD:3823005
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/224944
作者单位	1.中国科学院南京土壤研究所, 南京, 江苏 210008, 中国; 2.南京林业大学研究生院, 南京, 江苏 210037, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	王宝良,潘贤章,梁音,等. 渭北旱原区域气候变化及其对冬小麦产量的潜在影响[J],2010,28(1):227-232.
APA	王宝良.,潘贤章.,梁音.,刘通.,杨轩.,...&关庆伟.(2010).渭北旱原区域气候变化及其对冬小麦产量的潜在影响.干旱地区农业研究,28(1),227-232.
MLA	王宝良,et al."渭北旱原区域气候变化及其对冬小麦产量的潜在影响".干旱地区农业研究 28.1(2010):227-232.