干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 新疆北部地区积雪深度变化特征及未来50a的预估

Arid

	新疆北部地区积雪深度变化特征及未来50a的预估
其他题名	A Prediction of Snow Cover Depth in the Northern Xinjiang in the Next 50 Years
	王澄海 1; 王芝兰 1; 沈永平 2
来源期刊	冰川冻土
ISSN	1000-0240
出版年	2010
卷号	32 期号:6 页码:1059-1065
中文摘要	分析比较参加CMIP3计划的全球气候模式,在20C3M下各模式1961-1999年平均积雪深度和观测资料比较的基础上,检验了模式对积雪深度的模拟能力.在此基础上,选用INM-CM3.0和CGCM-T471模式对北疆地区未来50 a的积雪变化进行了预估.由于受GCM的空间分辨率和新疆北部地区地形,盆地沙漠下垫面,水汽来源和干旱气候环境的影响,CMIP3模式的GCM在新疆北部地区的模拟能力有限.通过相关系数和均方差误差的双重检验,选取了在新疆地区模拟能力较好的INM-CM3.0和CGCM-T471模式的模拟结果对新疆地区未来的积雪变化进行了预测.结果表明,在A1B,B1情景下,2002-2050年,总体上新疆北部地区的积雪深度均呈减少趋势;A2情景下,INM-CM3.0,CGCM-T47-1模式在准葛尔盆地地区积雪变化的模拟结果存在差异,但未来40 a新疆地区除天山附近外,积雪深度变化呈减少趋势
英文摘要	A prediction of snow cover depth change in northern Xinjiang in the next 50 a is made used by GCM simulation, which joins the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP3). Firstly, the snow cover data observed and simulated by 20C3M during 1961-2000 are analyzed and compared, and then the performance of the models in snow cover is examined. Because of the effects of terrains, desert and arid climate environment in northern Xinjiang,as well as the resolution of GCM, the performance of GCM is limited. Secondly, based on the inspecting of significance of correlation and root mean squire,INM-CM3.0 and CGCM-T471 are chosen to predict the snow cover in the next 50 a over northern Xinjiang. Further, the distribution features of snow cover over northern Xinjiang in the last 40 years were analyzed. It is found that, during 2002-2050,in A1B and B1 scenarios,on whole, the snow cover depth will appear a decrease tendency, however, there will be some difference in the decrease in snow cover depth in the south Altay Mountains. In A2 scenarios, the results simulated by INM-CM3.0 and CGCM-T471 have a relative large difference in snow cover variations in Junggar basin
中文关键词	积雪深度 ; 气候情景 ; CIMP3计划 ; 积雪预测 ; 新疆北部
英文关键词	snow cover depth climate scenarios Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CIMP3) snow cover prediction the northern Xinjiang
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
CSCD记录号	CSCD:4096799
来源机构	中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院 ; 兰州大学
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/224709
作者单位	1.兰州大学大气科学学院, 兰州, 甘肃 730000, 中国; 2.中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所, 冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室, 兰州, 甘肃 730000, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	王澄海,王芝兰,沈永平. 新疆北部地区积雪深度变化特征及未来50a的预估[J]. 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院, 兰州大学,2010,32(6):1059-1065.
APA	王澄海,王芝兰,&沈永平.(2010).新疆北部地区积雪深度变化特征及未来50a的预估.冰川冻土,32(6),1059-1065.
MLA	王澄海,et al."新疆北部地区积雪深度变化特征及未来50a的预估".冰川冻土 32.6(2010):1059-1065.