干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 基于可能-满意度法的城市人口承载力研究以乌海市为例

Arid

	基于可能-满意度法的城市人口承载力研究以乌海市为例
其他题名	Research on Carrying Capacity in Urban Area by P-S ModelA Case Study of Wuhai City
	张子珩 1; 濮励杰 1; 康国定 2; 雷敏 2
ISSN	1000-3037
出版年	2009
卷号	24 期号:3 页码:457-465
中文摘要	可能-满意度方法是从系统目标实现的可能度与满意度角度出发,分别建立可能度函数与满意度函数,并且利用一定的并合技术形成综合的可能-满意度的一种多目标决策方法.由于承载力具有相对意义,取决于自然资源的支撑能力和人们追求的生活标准,因此,可能-满意度法可用于承载力研究.文章选取乌海市作为研究区域,选用可能-满意度法,通过构建乌海市人口承载力的指标体系以及可能度和满意度函数,对乌海市未来人口承载力进行分析.结果认为:不同人口规模将面临的资源环境以及社会经济问题是不同的.当总人口小于4910~4人时,大气质量问题相对严重;当总人口大于4910~4人时,水资源供需矛盾上升为主要问题.当总人口继续超过6310~4人时,就业问题比资源环境问题更显严峻.综合各种目标的可能-满意度,乌海市2020年的人口承载力以5110~4人为宜,对应的可能-满意度为0.61.
英文摘要	P-S model is one of the methods of multi-objective decision, which can be used to describe the overall situation of a given system by synthesized degree derived from a series of formulations of probability and satisfaction of system targets. Carrying capacity, according to its definition, is relative, and decided by supply of natural resources and living standard people desired. So calculation of carrying capacity is related to analysis of both probable supply of natural resources and satisfied living standard. This is the background that P-S model as an approach is valid for carrying capacity. Wuhai city is a resource-based city in west Inner Mongolia Autono-mous Region. It is located in the upper reaches of the Yellow River and at southeast edge of Ulan-buh Desert. The population of Wuhai city reached 470 thousands in 2006 and total area of 1754 km~2. Its annual average rainfall is 158mm, and evaporation 3249mm. So the main charac-teristic of natural environment is drought. Even though next to the Yellow River, it was still faced with the fresh water shortage problem in recent years. In addition, both its air quality and fresh water quality are exacerbating with its economic growth. In order to promote sustainable develop-ment and rational birth control in Wuhai city, carrying capacity research is an important program. This article sets up an indicators system to evaluate carrying capacity in Wuhai city after analyzing some key objectives of development, such as economy, employment, air quality, fresh water quality, fresh water equilibrium, crowded life and family size. It also lists critical situations of each indicator and principles for the formulation of probability and satisfaction under critical situa-tions respectively. With the P-S model, the following conclusions are drawn. First, different pop-ulation size will witness different problems. If total population is less than 490 thousands, air pol-lution would be relatively serious. Otherwise, if the total population is more than 490 thousands, to keep the fresh water equilibrium would become the mostly hard objective, and if the total popu-lation continues to grow to exceed 630 thousands, unemployment problem would be more serious than the natural resources problems. Second, too small size of population will not be fine due to the heavy cost of birth control and weak market effect from population. However, the pattern of first development and second solution is not adapted to sustainable development in Wuhai city, because its carrying capacity of natural resources is smaller than that of economic development. Finally, the human carrying capacity in Wuhai city in 2020 is recommended as 510 thousands by the P-S model.
中文关键词	自然资源 ; 人口承载力 ; 可能-满意度法 ; 乌海市
英文关键词	natural resources carrying capacity P-S model Wuhai City
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	ECONOMICS
WOS研究方向	Business & Economics
CSCD记录号	CSCD:3520014
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/224660
作者单位	1.南京大学,地理与海洋科学学院, 南京, 江苏 210093, 中国; 2.南京人口学院,人口经济系, 南京, 江苏 210042, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	张子珩,濮励杰,康国定,等. 基于可能-满意度法的城市人口承载力研究以乌海市为例[J],2009,24(3):457-465.
APA	张子珩,濮励杰,康国定,&雷敏.(2009).基于可能-满意度法的城市人口承载力研究以乌海市为例.,24(3),457-465.
MLA	张子珩,et al."基于可能-满意度法的城市人口承载力研究以乌海市为例".24.3(2009):457-465.