干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 基于Mann-Kendall法的张掖市降水量时空分布规律分析

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	基于Mann-Kendall法的张掖市降水量时空分布规律分析
其他题名	Analysis of the Spatiotemporal Distribution of Precipitation in Zhangye City Using Mann-Kendall Method
	康淑媛; 张勃; 柳景峰; 杨明金
ISSN	1007-7588
出版年	2009
卷号	31 期号:3 页码:501-508
中文摘要	本文依据张掖市6县(区)6个气象观测站点近50年(1956年～2004年)来逐月的降水量观测资料,运用非参数检验方法(Mann-Kendall法),分析了张掖市降水量的时空分布规律.结果表明:①张掖市的降水量总体上呈现增加的趋势(beta值为4.7mm/a),其中秋季降水量增加明显(beta值为3.9mm/a),春夏季降水量呈现减少趋势,但降水量主要集中在夏季,占全年的59.1%;②降水量空间分布不均,呈现出由东南向西北逐渐递减的趋势,而且随着海拔的升高降水量逐渐增大;③春季和夏季都形成以民乐县为中心的降水量高值区;春季只有高台和临泽县降水量呈下降趋势,夏季甘州区降水量下降趋势最明显(beta值为-5.1mm/a),秋季降水量增幅最大的地区位于山丹县(beta值为4.2 mm/a),冬季降水量民乐县增加趋势最明显(beta值为0.65 mm/a).
英文摘要	Heihe River locates in the arid region of northwest China. In the last five decades, the climate in Heihe River Basin changed significantly. Zhangye City lies in the middle reaches of Heihe River with little rainfall and its average annual precipitation is 198mm. Precipitation is not only one of main sources of water resources , but also one of the main factors affecting the periodic change of water resources over this area. According to the precipitation data of six typical meteorological stations from 1956 to 2004, this paper analyzed the changing characteristics of precipitation in Zhangye City by using Mann-Kendall rank analysis method to finish examination of annual and seasonal precipitation trends in Zhangye City. The Mann-Kendall statistic test is a rank-based and non-parametric approach which has been widely used to estimate the significance of long-term trends in hydro-meteorological time series. The results showed that the change of precipitation fluctuated in the last 49 years. The minimum and maximum precipitation happened in 1962 and 1979, which were 122mm and 289mm respectively. The precipitation of the 1990s was higher than that in the 1960s. The change of precipitation synchronized with temperature change. In other words, if precipitation increases, the temperature would be higher, and if precipitation decreases, the temperature would become lower. The general tendency of annual runoff kept fluctuating while the mean annual precipitation tended to increase (beta= 4.7mm/a), especially in autumn (beta= 3.9mm/a). The precipitation in summer and spring showed a declining trend, however, the precipitation in summer was 51.9% of the annual precipitation. Spatial distribution of precipitation showed that there was a gradual decreasing trend from southeast to northwest, with the elevation increasing precipitation gradually increasing. Topographic differentiation has led to such kind of spatial distribution of precipitation. Seasonal rainfall varied in different regions, and there was also an obvious increasing center in Minle District. The precipitation of Gaotai District and Linze District in summer tended to decline and so did the precipitation of Ganzhou District in spring(beta= -5.1 mm/a). There was an obvious increasing tendency in the autumn precipitation of Shandan District(beta= 4.2 mm/a), and so did the winter precipitation of Minle District(beta= 0.65 mm/ a). In the last part, some problems need solving in the future were briefly analyzed.
中文关键词	降水量 ; 分布 ; Mann-Kendall法 ; 张掖市
英文关键词	Precipitation Distribution Mann-Kendall method Zhangye City
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
CSCD记录号	CSCD:3520301
来源机构	西北师范大学
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/224636
作者单位	西北师范大学,地理与环境科学学院, 兰州, 甘肃 730070, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	康淑媛,张勃,柳景峰,等. 基于Mann-Kendall法的张掖市降水量时空分布规律分析[J]. 西北师范大学,2009,31(3):501-508.
APA	康淑媛,张勃,柳景峰,&杨明金.(2009).基于Mann-Kendall法的张掖市降水量时空分布规律分析.,31(3),501-508.
MLA	康淑媛,et al."基于Mann-Kendall法的张掖市降水量时空分布规律分析".31.3(2009):501-508.