干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 气候变化对我国干旱区分布及其范围的潜在影响

Arid

	气候变化对我国干旱区分布及其范围的潜在影响
其他题名	Potential Effect of Climate Change on the Distribution and Range of Arid Regions
	吴建国; 吕佳佳
ISSN	1001-6929
出版年	2009
卷号	22 期号:2 页码:199-206
中文摘要	为确定气候变化对土地荒漠化影响,以干燥度指数及A1,A2,B1和B2气候变化情景分析了气候变化对我国干旱区分布范围的影响.模拟结果表明:气候变化将导致我国极端干旱区和湿润区分布范围缩小,干旱区、半干旱区和半湿润区分布范围扩大.极端干旱区分布范围缩小并被干旱区所代替,半干旱区向半湿润区东、南部方向扩展,湿润区东北部和西部被半干旱和半湿润区所代替.极端干旱区和湿润区分布范围变化与全国年均气温增量呈负相关性,干旱区、半干旱区和半湿润区分布范围变化与全国年均气温增量呈正相关性.多元回归分析表明,干旱区和极端干旱区分布范围随全国年降水量增加而减少;半湿润区和湿润区分布范围随全国年降水量增加而增加;除A1情景外,其他气候情景下半干旱区分布范围均随全国年降水量增加而减少;湿润区分布范围随全国年均气温增加而减少,其他气候区范围随全国年均气温升高而增加.随着气候变化,我国荒漠化范围将增加,干旱胁迫总体上减弱.
英文摘要	To understand the potential effects of climate change on desertification, the impact of climate change on arid regions in China was analyzed using an aridity index and climate change scenarios A1, A2, B1 and B2. The simulated results showed that climate change in China will cause a decrease in the total area of hyper-arid and humid regions, but an increase in the total area of arid, semi-arid and semi-humid regions. The hyper-arid regions will be replaced by arid regions. The semi-arid regions will expand south and east from the semi-humid regions. The north-eastern and western parts of humid regions will be replaced by semi-arid or semi-humid regions. The semi-arid and semihumid regions will expand west, north and south from the humid regions. The change in area of both hyper-arid and humid regions was negatively correlated with annual mean temperature in China, while the change in area of arid, semi-arid and semi-humid regions was positively correlated with annual mean temperature in China. Due to increasing annual mean precipitation, the total area of hyper-arid or arid regions will decrease, while that of humid or semi-arid regions will increase. The total area of semi-arid regions decreased with increased annual mean precipitation under all scenarios except Al. Due to increasing annual mean temperature, the total area of humid regions will decrease, while that of other climatic regions will increase. Climate change will cause increased desertification in China, while climatic drought stress will be weakened.
中文关键词	气候变化 ; 干旱区 ; 影响
英文关键词	climate change arid regions effects
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
CSCD记录号	CSCD:3592411
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/223846
作者单位	中国环境科学研究院, 北京 100012, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	吴建国,吕佳佳. 气候变化对我国干旱区分布及其范围的潜在影响[J],2009,22(2):199-206.
APA	吴建国,&吕佳佳.(2009).气候变化对我国干旱区分布及其范围的潜在影响.,22(2),199-206.
MLA	吴建国,et al."气候变化对我国干旱区分布及其范围的潜在影响".22.2(2009):199-206.

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