干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 河套灌区五原绿洲50a气候年变化特征与预测研究

Arid

	河套灌区五原绿洲50a气候年变化特征与预测研究
其他题名	Study on annual change characteristics and prediction of climate in Wuyuan Oasis, Hetao Irrigation District since recent 50 years
	刘普幸; 安建科; 周俊菊; 程英
ISSN	1003-7578
出版年	2009
卷号	23 期号:10 页码:106-110
中文摘要	利用1956-2005年河套灌区五原绿洲气温和降水时间亭列分析表明,研究区气温呈显著增暖趋势,而降水量波动中略有下降.对50a来气温和降水的Morlet小波及其功率谱分析结果表明,研究区气候具有多尺度振荡的特点,年平均气温存在4.88a、7.14a、11.1a和21a左右的周期变化,而年平均降水具有显著的4.89a和21 a左右的周期变化.气温和降水具有同步的时间序列,但其优势周期尺度不同.年平均气温和年平均降水分别存在11.1a和4.89a显著周期(P<0.01).通过GM(1,1)模型模拟预测表明,未来10年气温仍然呈持续升高趋势,且增幅较大.
英文摘要	Based on the time series of the temperature and the precipitation from 1956 to 2005, the climate change in Wuyuan oasis, Hetao irrigation district in China was analyzed. The results showed that the temperature was obviously increasing and the precipitation was slightly decreasing in the study. The wavelet technique and its power spectrum analysis were firstly used to analyze the time series of the annual mean temperature and the annual mean precipitation. The results indicated that there were many climate oscillations characteristics in the periods and the multiple timescales pattern, which consistented on large scale but differential on small scale. The periods of the annual mean temperature were 4. 76a, 6. 67a, 11. la, 21a, and the periods of annual mean precipitation were 4. 89a and 21 a,in which the dominance periods of the annual mean temperature and the annual mean precipitation were 11. la,4. 89a, respectively at the confidence above 90% level. All of these indicated that the annual mean temperature was mainly influenced by the solar active and the annual mean precipitation was mainly influenced by the atmospheric circulation. The GM (1,1) model was applied to simulate and predict the temperature in the following 10a and the result showed that the temperature would still increase and the increasing scope is quite wide in the future.
中文关键词	五原绿洲 ; 气候变化 ; Modet小波 ; 小波功率谱 ; GM(1,1)模型
英文关键词	Wuyuan Oasis climate change Morlet wavelet power spectrum of Morlet wavelet GM (1,1) model
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
CSCD记录号	CSCD:3787508
来源机构	西北师范大学
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/223713
作者单位	西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院, 兰州, 甘肃 730070, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	刘普幸,安建科,周俊菊,等. 河套灌区五原绿洲50a气候年变化特征与预测研究[J]. 西北师范大学,2009,23(10):106-110.
APA	刘普幸,安建科,周俊菊,&程英.(2009).河套灌区五原绿洲50a气候年变化特征与预测研究.,23(10),106-110.
MLA	刘普幸,et al."河套灌区五原绿洲50a气候年变化特征与预测研究".23.10(2009):106-110.