干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 新疆于田县耕地动态变化驱动力定量研究

Arid

	新疆于田县耕地动态变化驱动力定量研究
其他题名	Quantitative Studies on the Driving Force of Dynamic Changes of the Arable Land in YuTian Country in Xinjiang
	田源; 塔西甫拉提·特依拜; 丁建丽; 张飞; 哈学萍
ISSN	1003-7578
出版年	2009
卷号	23 期号:3 页码:67-72
中文摘要	保持一定数量的耕地是人类赖以生存和发展的基础,目前耕地总量减少在全国是一个普遍的趋势.对引起耕地变化的驱动因子研究是当前土地利用/覆被研究的热点.于田县位于塔克拉玛干沙漠南缘,属温带大陆性干旱沙漠气候,全部社会经济活动都集中在有限的绿洲内部,如何在保持经济发展、提高人民生活水平的基础上保护有限的耕地资源,是关系到该县和谐以及可持续发展的重要问题.本文使用于田县1949-2004年的社会经济统计资料,分析了五十余年来该县耕地变化的情况.同时运用SPSS 15.0 for windows软件包对影响耕地变化的11个因子进行主成分分析并建立耕地动态变化的多元回归模型.结果表明:影响于田县耕地变化的因素可以概括为人口、经济发展、农业科技进步三个方面;通过对回归模型的分析可以看出耕地面积与粮食单产、社会消费品零售总额等因子成正相关,而与总人口、GDP等因子成负相关,另外耕地对总人口的变化最为敏感,而对GDP的变化敏感性较小.
英文摘要	The Land Use and Land Cover Change(LUCC) is a hot spot in the environment research in the world. The driving forces of the arable land changes are the important issues for LUCC research. The driving forces can be classificed into two kinds; natural or social - economical factors, social - economical is a main factors in a short time. YuTian Country is located on the south part of Tarim Basin,and belongs to the extreme arid desert climate. All social - economy activities are in the oasis which is unceasingly reduced. In order to keep a sustainable econ-. omy development, protecting the arable land is very important in this situation. In this paper, the driving forces of the arable land changes between 1949 to 2004 were analysed using Principal Components Analysis and other methods. The results indicated population, economy, agricultural science and technology were the main driving forces. In the first principal components the correlation coefficient of population, agricultural science and technology and economy were 0.977,0.955 and 0.918. Then using Backward Multiple Linear Regression methods to build a multiple linear regression model. The model indicated population, GDP etc. had a negative relation with the arable land while the average income per farmer,grain yield per unit area etc had a positive realtion with arable land.
中文关键词	于田 ; 耕地 ; 驱动力 ; 主成分分析 ; 动态变化
英文关键词	YuTian arable land driving forces Principal Components Analysis dynamic change
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS POLICY
WOS研究方向	Agriculture
CSCD记录号	CSCD:3761648
来源机构	新疆大学
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/223663
作者单位	新疆大学资源与环境科学学院, 乌鲁木齐, 新疆 830046, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	田源,塔西甫拉提·特依拜,丁建丽,等. 新疆于田县耕地动态变化驱动力定量研究[J]. 新疆大学,2009,23(3):67-72.
APA	田源,塔西甫拉提·特依拜,丁建丽,张飞,&哈学萍.(2009).新疆于田县耕地动态变化驱动力定量研究.,23(3),67-72.
MLA	田源,et al."新疆于田县耕地动态变化驱动力定量研究".23.3(2009):67-72.