干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 策勒河出山径流特征及其趋势

Arid

	策勒河出山径流特征及其趋势
其他题名	Changing trend and features of the runoff from mountain areas of the Qira River
	代述勇; 雷加强; 赵景峰; 曾凡江; 李生宇; 范冬冬
ISSN	1000-6060
出版年	2009
卷号	32 期号:2 页码:204-210
中文摘要	根据策勒河近50年水文及气象资料,利用经验频率、Mann-Kendall非参数检验和非线性回归分析等方法,分析策勒河径流量的变化特征、变化趋势及其对气候的响应.结果表明:策勒河径流年内分配不均,夏、秋季偏丰,5～9月径流量占全年88.70%;冬、春季偏枯,10月到次年4月径流量占全年11.30%,策勒河变差系数为0.21,径流最大值与最小值之比为2.53,河流年际变化相对稳定;Mann-Kendall检验得出近十年出山径流量有减少的趋势;月平均流量与月平均降水量、月平均蒸发量和月平均气温之间存在复杂的非线性关系,非线性回归模型模拟的月平均流量与实测值对比,确定系数为0.73,模拟效果较好,月平均蒸发量与月平均流量呈负相关.
英文摘要	Water is one of main control factors of the sustainable development in the oasis region, understanding the characteristics of runoff changes of the Qira River is useful to plan and use water resources rationally and promote the oasis sustainable development of society and economy. According to nearly 50-year hydro-meteorological data of the Qira River, in virtue of the frequency of experience, Mann- Kendall non-parametric test methods, the charac-teristics of runoff interannual variation of the Qira River and its changing trend were analyzed. The results show that: the distribution of runoffis uneven in a year, summer and autumn with much more runoff, namely, the runoff from May to September accounted for 88.7% ; winter and spring is with less runoff, the runoff from October to next April accounted for 11.3%. The Qira River value is 0.21 and maximum ratio 2.53. The interannual variation of runoff is relatively stable. Mann-Kendall test indecates a decrease trend of runoff in the past decade. There are complex nonlinear relationships between the monthly average runoff and average precipitation, the average evapora-tion and average temperature. The average monthly runoff determined with nonlinear regression model was compared with its measured one, whose NSE value is 0. 729 7, and the simulation results are better. The average evaporation is negatively correlated with the average runoff, which results in monthly runoff reducing, the temperature and evaporation increasing.
中文关键词	策勒河 ; 出山径流 ; 径流特征 ; 趋势分析
英文关键词	Qira River runoff characteristics trend analysis
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	GEOSCIENCES MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向	Geology
CSCD记录号	CSCD:3583234
来源机构	中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/223538
作者单位	中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所, 乌鲁木齐, 新疆 830011, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	代述勇,雷加强,赵景峰,等. 策勒河出山径流特征及其趋势[J]. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,2009,32(2):204-210.
APA	代述勇,雷加强,赵景峰,曾凡江,李生宇,&范冬冬.(2009).策勒河出山径流特征及其趋势.,32(2),204-210.
MLA	代述勇,et al."策勒河出山径流特征及其趋势".32.2(2009):204-210.