干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 近50年来呼伦贝尔草原沙漠化主要影响因素的定量分析

Arid

	近50年来呼伦贝尔草原沙漠化主要影响因素的定量分析
其他题名	Quantitative Study of Main Influential Factors of Sandy Desertification in Hulunbeier Grassland During the Near Fifty Years
	陈秋红 1; 周尧治 2; 辛晓平 2
ISSN	1002-2104
出版年	2008
卷号	18 期号:5 页码:200-204
中文摘要	选取气温、降水因子以及反映人类社会经济活动的人口、耕地、牲畜等影响因子的相对指标为分析因子，利用主成分分析与相关分析相结合的方法，定量分析近50年《1953-2004）来各影响因子与综合影响因素对内蒙古呼伦贝尔草原沙漠化的作用强度。结果表明：在当地近50年的沙漠化过程中，驱动因素、抑制因素与影响因素的综合作用力与沙漠化指数的相关系数分别为0．8899，-0．403以及0.6005；草原沙漠化程度呈现出随人类活动强度增加日益加剧的趋势，其中牲畜结构对草原沙漠化变化趋势的改变有着重要作用；影响因素的综合作用力与沙漠化指数的相关系数只有0．6005，这是由于生态经济系统各因素之间存在非线性作用机制，相关分析的线性假设在一定程度上低估了其作用强度，同肘人类活动和自然因子的波动对草地生态系统的影响存在一个滞后期。
英文摘要	Looking from the present literature about the influencing factors of grassland desertification, it can be concluded that the response mechanism and sensitive degree of ecological and economic system to human activity and natural factors is different in different geography unit. Using method of principal components analysis and regression analysis, taking Hulunbeier grassland of Inner Mongolia as study region, the paper analyzed the effect intensity of main influencing factors including population density, cultivated land index, livestock density, livestock composition and their weights in total livestock, average annual air temperature and rainfall and integrated influencing factor to grassland desertification on data in 1953 - 2004.The results are as follows： the correlation coefficients of the promotion factor, the inhibiting factor and the total influencing factor with the grassland desertification index respeetively are 0. 8899, -0.4030.6005. The grassland＇s desert degree raises with the increasing human activities＇ intensity, and sheep and goat weights in total livestock is playing a comparatively major role on grassland desertion trend changing. The correlation coefficients of the total influencing factor with the grassland desertification is just 0. 6005, because there is nonlinear interplay mechanism among these factors in ecology economical system, linear hypothesis of correlation analysis has underestimated its function to a certain extent, and the emerging of grassland desertification lags the fluctuation effect of influencing factors.
中文关键词	呼伦贝尔草原 ; 沙漠化 ; 影响因素 ; 定量分析
英文关键词	grassland of Hulunbeier sandy desertification influential factors quantitative study
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	ECONOMICS
WOS研究方向	Business & Economics
CSCD记录号	CSCD:3405715
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/223096
作者单位	1.中国社会科学院研究生院农村发展系, 北京 100102, 中国; 2.中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所, 北京 100081, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	陈秋红,周尧治,辛晓平. 近50年来呼伦贝尔草原沙漠化主要影响因素的定量分析[J],2008,18(5):200-204.
APA	陈秋红,周尧治,&辛晓平.(2008).近50年来呼伦贝尔草原沙漠化主要影响因素的定量分析.,18(5),200-204.
MLA	陈秋红,et al."近50年来呼伦贝尔草原沙漠化主要影响因素的定量分析".18.5(2008):200-204.