干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 有序人类活动造成的土地利用变化对区域降水的可能影响

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	有序人类活动造成的土地利用变化对区域降水的可能影响
其他题名	Possible Impacts of Land Use Change on Regional Rainfall Associated with Orderly Human Activities
	宋帅 1; 鞠永茂 2; 王汉杰 1
ISSN	1006-9585
出版年	2008
卷号	13 期号:6 页码:759-774
中文摘要	人类社会发展主要通过土地利用变化和温室气体排放两种途径影响着气候环境,因此,完善的气候模式需要从这两方面与社会经济学模式进行耦合。作者从土地利用变化的角度出发,引入系统动力学模型预测的土地利用数据库资料,并利用该资料动态地修正区域气候模式的下垫面地表覆盖类型,实现了社会经济学模式与区域气候模式的单向耦合。在此基础上,利用耦合的区域环境系统集成模式(RIEMS2.0),将社会经济稳定发展和高速发展两种驱动情景下不同时段的土地利用资料,分别进行数值模式运行。最后根据得出的预测结果,从降水的空间分布和时间演变等方面分析了未来50年中国气候可能的年代际演变特征,同时对土地利用变化影响区域气候的机理进行了探讨。主要研究结果表明,区域气候变化尤其是区域降水对土地利用变化的响应较为敏感,而且土地利用变化引起的气候效应不仅局限于土地利用发生改变的区域,因此,研究土地利用变化对区域环境的影响要综合考虑其区域分布以及各区域的变化程度。长时间的气候预测研究,在气候模式中耦合社会经济学模式是必要的。仅考虑土地利用的变化,未来50年华南地区年降水量将呈现减少的趋势,北方地区的年降水量在2010年左右将呈现增长的趋势,且增长的趋势可能持续到2050年。预测结果同时显示,西部干旱半干旱区沙漠绿化,增加东北及内蒙古西部地区的森林面积,华北地区退耕还草等措施对北方地区年降水量的增加是有益的。同时,对应西部沙漠面积扩大,华北地区城市用地增加,东北及内蒙古西部地区林地退化以及华南地区林地增加等土地利用的变化,北方的干旱化趋势会进一步加剧。土地利用变化可以引起气候模式下垫面参数中的地表反照率、粗糙度等发生改变,变化的地表覆盖类型与大气的能量和水分通量交换差异作用于大气的流场和温度场等要素,从而改变了区域的气候环境。
英文摘要	Regional human development may affect the regional climate and environment by many means,including land use change and green house gas emission.So there are at least two connection ways to link social-economic model with climate model when considering model integration.The authors focused on the first factor.By dynamically changing the low boundary conditions,the new generation of the Regional Integrated Environment Modeling System(RIEMS 2.0)was coupled with the Social Economic Dynamic Model which may reveal possible land use change in the future 50 years under different development scenarios.According to the data given from Social Economic Dynamic Model under high development and stable development scenarios,the single coupled model was used to study the possible regional climate change of China in the future shown by analysis of the regional precipitation spatial distribution and its evolution.The preliminary results show that RIEMS was sensitive to land use change.The spatial distribution of different regions and variation degree of those corresponding regions should be taken into account because the total impacts of the land use change on climate was not only limited to those regions where land use changed,but also to those regions where the land use didn’t change at all.So it is necessary to integrate the social economic model into climate models when performing climate forecast for long time integration.The ecological construction engineering implemented including the Green-Great Wall construction engineering in the arid and semi-arid regions of west China,the natural forest conservation in northeast China and the west part of Inner Mongolia,also the replace farming with forestry and grass movement in north China etc will work positively on the eco-environment improvement,particularly will show as the increased precipitation in north China.The simulation also shows that the precipitation in north China will decrease and then speed up the aridification in this region,corresponding to the expand of the desert in the west China and the urbanization land in north China,the degeneration of forests in northeast China and the west part of Inner Mongolia,also the coverage of forests enlarged in south China etc.In north China,however,the co-effects of urban land increase with the forests coverage enlarged by irrigation will do positive effect to this region’s precipitation.In the future 50 years,the rainfall in south China will decrease,while the rainfall will increase in north China around 2010 and the rainfall increase tendency most likely lasts to 2050,which benefits to the national economy and eco-environment because the water shortage is the critical factor in blocking economy growing in this area.Under stable social economical development scenery,the rainfall increment in north China is not as clear as those in high-speed scenery.Land use change will lead to the variation of surface parameters such as albedo and roughness length etc,and result in regional climate change because the equilibrium of water and heat transfer in the air-vegetation interface is changed.
中文关键词	土地利用变化 ; 社会经济学模式 ; 系统动力学模型 ; 气候预测
英文关键词	RIEMS land use change social economic model system dynamic model RIEMS climate prediction
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
CSCD记录号	CSCD:3462512
来源机构	中国科学院大气物理研究所
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/222627
作者单位	1.中国科学院大气物理研究所, 中国科学院东亚区域气候-环境重点实验室, 北京 100029, 中国; 2.中国人民解放军61741部队气象中心, 北京 100081, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	宋帅,鞠永茂,王汉杰. 有序人类活动造成的土地利用变化对区域降水的可能影响[J]. 中国科学院大气物理研究所,2008,13(6):759-774.
APA	宋帅,鞠永茂,&王汉杰.(2008).有序人类活动造成的土地利用变化对区域降水的可能影响.,13(6),759-774.
MLA	宋帅,et al."有序人类活动造成的土地利用变化对区域降水的可能影响".13.6(2008):759-774.