干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 基于CGE模型的张掖市水资源利用研究

Arid

	基于CGE模型的张掖市水资源利用研究
其他题名	Study on Water Resources Utilization in Zhangye City Based on CGE Model
	王勇; 肖洪浪; 任娟; 陆明峰
ISSN	1001-4675
出版年	2008
卷号	25 期号:1 页码:28-34
中文摘要	作为一种规范的政策分析工具，CGE模型能够准确地模拟外生变量的变化对整个经济系统产生的影响。引入CGE模型作为分析工具，以黑河流域的张掖市为例，计算了工、农业生产的边际水价，并考察了供水变化对该地区社会、经济发展产生的影响。结果表明：张掖市工、农业生产用水的经济效益差别显著，提高农业用水效率，优化当前用水结构是缓解张掖市水资源危机的有效手段。此外，供水量的变化将会对社会劳动力就业产生较大影响。
英文摘要	Shortage of water resources is the main problem of protecting the entironment and developing society and economy in the Heihe River Basin located in an arid region in northwest China. The volume of available water resources in the study area is very limited, so how to effectively utilize the limited water resources and achieve the sustainable utilization of limited water resources are the key issues for the stable social and economic development in the drainage basin. As the powerful and economical means, in this study the computable general equilibrium （CGE） model is used to estimate the marginal water price of industrial and agricultural production in Zhangye City located in the middle reaches of the Heihe River Basin, and the effect of water supply on the local social and economic development is lucubrated. The results show that the marginal water prices of agriculture and industry in Zhangye City in 2000 were 0.81 yuan/m~3 and 6.77 yuan/m~3 respectively, and the ratio of agricultural unit water consumption and industrial unit water consumption to the marginal contribution of the local GDP was 1：8. Therefore, it is the key of alleviating the shortage of water resources to save agricultural irrigation water and shift agricultural water consumption to industrial water consumption by developing stock raising. However, the influence of changing water supply on the local employment must be paid great attention to.
中文关键词	水资源 ; CGE模型 ; 边际水价 ; 政策分析 ; 张掖 ; 甘肃
英文关键词	water resources CGE model marginal water price employment sector output
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	ENGINEERING MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向	Engineering
CSCD记录号	CSCD:3255515
来源机构	中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/222307
作者单位	中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所, 中科院寒旱区流域水文及应用生态实验室, 兰州, 甘肃 730000, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	王勇,肖洪浪,任娟,等. 基于CGE模型的张掖市水资源利用研究[J]. 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,2008,25(1):28-34.
APA	王勇,肖洪浪,任娟,&陆明峰.(2008).基于CGE模型的张掖市水资源利用研究.,25(1),28-34.
MLA	王勇,et al."基于CGE模型的张掖市水资源利用研究".25.1(2008):28-34.