干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 城域承灾能力评估研究及其应用

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	城域承灾能力评估研究及其应用
其他题名	Evaluation model for urban-regional disaster-bearing capacity and its application
	陈国华; 梁韬; 张华文
ISSN	1009-6094
出版年	2008
卷号	8 期号:2 页码:156-162
中文摘要	在分析城域事故灾难理论和承灾能力各类影响因素的基础上，运用层次分析法，从城域防灾、抗灾、救灾及灾后恢复等方面出发，构建了比较全面的城域突发事故灾难承灾能力综合评估指标体系。运用多因素数学建模理论，研究各因素对系统的影响方式及重要程度，选取并改进指标权重分析方法，建立了承灾能力评估方法及数学模型。在此基础上，选取某城市区域进行现场调查并获取相关参数，通过该评估指标体系和评估模型，计算出区域的综合承灾能力指数，同时以指标效果系数的形式反映承灾能力的薄弱环节。评价结果与实际情况相一致，表明该模型能够比较准确和全面地评价突发事故灾难中的城域综合承灾能力，为城域承灾能力的提升指明方向。
英文摘要	The present paper is aimed to introduce the authors＇ work at an evaluation model of ttrban disaster-bearing capacity by using the so-called H＇ierarchy Analysis Process （HAP）. Through extensive literature review and by adopting the idea of disaster-bearing capacities to our research practice, we have analyzed the dominant influential factors involving urban disaster-bearing capacities with the method of Delphi for the given purpose and worked out a structured and layered evaluation index system. The index system consists of four layers, such as the target layer, systemic layer（5 first-level indexes）, state layer（39 second-level indexes）, and the variable layer（157 third-level indexes）. Based on the so-called multi-factor modeling theory, we have analyzed the affecting manners and degrees of each factor on the whole system and redesigned the traditional scale of 1 -9 （with 9 being excellent and 1 being poor）. As a result, we have improved the method of index weight analysis, and, finally, accomplished the model for evaluating the urban disaster-bearing capacities by means of AHP. To make the model more successful and applicable, we have conducted some detailed field investigations as a case study by selecting a city in one of South China economic zones so as to obtain necessary first-hand data and define the values and weights of all the indexes involved. The evaluation results we have gained through the field investigation proves effective in reflecting the weak points in the disaster-combating capacities of the region, thus indicating the applica-bility and availability of the proposed evaluation model in assessing the urban disaster-bearing capacities.
中文关键词	安全科学技术基础 ; 突发事故灾难 ; 承灾能力 ; 评估
英文关键词	basic disciplines of safety science arid technology sudden accidents and disasters disaster bearing capacity evaluation
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	PUBLIC ENVIRONMENTAL OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH
WOS研究方向	Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
CSCD记录号	CSCD:3290627
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/221999
作者单位	华南理工大学工业装备与控制工程学院安全科学与工程研究所, 广州, 广东 510640, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	陈国华,梁韬,张华文. 城域承灾能力评估研究及其应用[J],2008,8(2):156-162.
APA	陈国华,梁韬,&张华文.(2008).城域承灾能力评估研究及其应用.,8(2),156-162.
MLA	陈国华,et al."城域承灾能力评估研究及其应用".8.2(2008):156-162.