干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 近50a西北干旱区气候变化对农业的影响

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	近50a西北干旱区气候变化对农业的影响
其他题名	Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture in the Arid Region of Northwest China in Resent 50 Years
	任朝霞 1; 杨达源 2
ISSN	1003-7578
出版年	2007
卷号	21 期号:8 页码:48-53
中文摘要	本文选取了西北干旱区21个代表站点1951-2000年逐日气温和逐日降水量资料.用趋势法和百分位阈值法分析年平均气温、年降水量、极端年最低温度、年最高温度和极端降水量变化特征及其各分区极端气候变化趋势.研究结果表明:(1)近50a西北干旱区气温呈上升趋势(0.22℃/10a),1986年后气温明显升高,柴达木盆地和北疆升温较大.近50a西北干旱区年降水量变化和趋势分布,降水变化有增加的趋势(3.2mm/10a),其中北疆降水增加最多.(2)西北干旱区近40a年极端最低温度的天数有减少趋势,平均最低温度天数的减少率为7-8天/40a.而极端年最高温度的天数略有增加趋势,平均增加率为0.5天/40a左右.年最高温度略有减少趋势,平均变率为-0.5℃/40a,年最低温度也有增加趋势,平均变率为1.0℃/40a.西北干旱区近40a极端降水的天数增加了2天/40a.(3)气候变暖对西北干旱区农业既有有利影响,又有不利影响,降水量增加,极端气候事件减少对农业有有利影响.
英文摘要	Based on the precipitation data day by day of 21 representative stations during the period’of 1951 to 2000, used trend coefficient method and percentile threshold method to analyze the trends of minimum temperature, maximum temperature, extreme precipitation and extreme climate changes in the arid regions of Northwest China. The results show that: (1) temperature appears to be ascending(0. 22°C/ 10a) in recent 50 years, especially in the Chaidam Basin and North Xinjiang, the jump point happened in 1986. Seasonal temperatures presented increasing trend, mainly in autumn and winter. Precipitation appears to be ascending(3. 2mm/10a), the obvious increase of summer precipitation. Precipitation presented increasing trend each subarea, especially in North Xinjiang. (2) There is a remarkable decreasing trend of days of minimum temperature during the period, but days of maximum temperature have increasing, trend in the arid regions of Northwest China in resent 40 years. There is increasing trend of annual minimum temperature, annual maximum temperature has decreasing trend. Annual minimum temperature has increasing trend, annual maximum temperature has decreasing trend in North and south Xinjiang; annual minimum temperature and annual maximum temperature have increasing trend in Hexi passageway and Chaidam Basin. Days of extreme precipitation increase 2 days in resent 40 years. (3) climate warming have advantageous and disadvantageous influence on agriculture, precipitation in-. and extreme climate change decrease advantageous influence on agriculture.
中文关键词	气候变化趋势 ; 西北干旱区 ; 农业影响
英文关键词	trend of climate change the arid regions of Northwest China agriculture influence
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	AGRICULTURE MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向	Agriculture
CSCD记录号	CSCD:2849774
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/221075
作者单位	1.南京师范大学地理科学学院, 南京, 江苏 210046, 中国; 2.南京大学城市与资源学系, 南京, 江苏 210093, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	任朝霞,杨达源. 近50a西北干旱区气候变化对农业的影响[J],2007,21(8):48-53.
APA	任朝霞,&杨达源.(2007).近50a西北干旱区气候变化对农业的影响.,21(8),48-53.
MLA	任朝霞,et al."近50a西北干旱区气候变化对农业的影响".21.8(2007):48-53.

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