干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 中国北方近百年干湿变化与太平洋年代际振荡的关系

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	中国北方近百年干湿变化与太平洋年代际振荡的关系
其他题名	Relationship Between Dry/Wet Variation and the Pacific Decade Oscillation （PDO） in Northern China During the Last 100 Years
	马柱国; 邵丽娟
来源期刊	大气科学
ISSN	1006-9895
出版年	2006
卷号	30 期号:3 页码:464-474
中文摘要	利用CRU（Climate Research Unit）1901～2002年全球0.5°*0.5°网格点月降水和月平均气温资料,利用一个能够用于检测地表干湿变化的湿润指数,对中国北方四个典型地区干湿演变特征及与北太平洋年代际振荡的关系进行了初步的分析.结果发现：降水和湿润指数在表征干湿变化的特征时有明显的差别,特别是在干旱和半干旱地区,增暖也是影响干湿变化的一个重要因素.相关分析表明,华北和西北东部的年干湿变化与同期太平洋年代际振荡（简称PDO）指数有密切的关系,PDO指数的正位相对应两个地区的干旱时段,负位相则对应两个地区的湿润时段,而新疆南部与PDO指数同期呈显著的正相关关系,即当PDO为正位相时,该地区为湿的时段,负位相对应干的时段.以100°E为界,北方的东部干湿变化与太平洋年代际振荡指数呈反相关,而西部则相反,与PDO呈正相关关系.
英文摘要	The 1901 - 2002 global 0. 5°*0. 5° grid data of monthly precipitation and monthly mean air temperature are used to establish a humid index to detect the dry/wet variation at the surface. The relationship between dry/wet evolution of four subregions in northern China and the Pacific Decade Oscillation （PDO） is studied using the index. The precipitation analysis shows that the precipitation of the western part of Northwest China in the last 100 years is markedly increasing during the two periods of 1925 - 1955 and 1962 - 1992 including the 2 - 3 year periodic change, and a decreasing trend occurs after 1992. In the eastern part of Northwest China, the precipitation in last 100 years presents 2 - 3 year periodic change without obvious variation trend and the precipitation range decreases after 1970. The decreasing trend has shown in North China since 1950. In Northeast China, the 25-year periodic change is very obvious, and a dropping trend is superimposed upon the periodic oscillation after 1950. The analysis result from the humid index is different from that of precipitation variation, especially in the two subregions of Northwest China. In the western part of Northwest China, the humid index does not show the increasing trend despite the enlarging trend of precipitation, but the dropping trend （not in precipitation） of humid index occurs in the eastern part of Northwest China. The decreasing trend of humid index is more obvious than that of precipitation in North China and Northeast China. This accounts for the temperature variation as one of the important reasons inducing and enhancing aridification in addition to the precipitation variation, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. In North China and Northeast China, the dry/wet variation at interannual and interdecadal scales is obvious. PDO is closely related to the dry/wet variation of northern China. The correlation is significant in North China, the eastern part of Northwest China and the western part of the Tibetan Plateau south of the Tianshan Mountain. The correlation between dry/wet variation and PDO in Southwest China and South China is also significant. The negative correlation is shown in North China and the eastern part of Northwest China. The positive correlation exists between the surface humid index and PDO in the western part of the Tibetan Plateau. The reverse sign of correlation coefficients between PDO and humid index occurs in eastern and western China with the boundary of 100°E. The anomaly analysis shows that the interdecadal anomaly phase of PDO is contrary to the phase of humid index in North China and the eastern part of Northwest China, and the same phase duration is about 20 - 30 years. Accord- ing to the interdecadal periodic calculation, the pattern shifts will occur possibly in future in North China and the eastern part of Northwest China, which means the wetting shifts for the two subregions. But the temperature increase enlarges the uncertainty for the calculation, and warming may delay or prevent this kind of shift.
中文关键词	中国北方 ; 干湿变化 ; 湿润指数 ; 太平洋年代际振荡 ; 相关关系
英文关键词	northern China the dry/wet change humid index the Pacific decade oscillation correlation
类型	Article
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
CSCD记录号	CSCD:2450312
来源机构	中国科学院大气物理研究所
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/219489
作者单位	马柱国, 中国科学院大气物理研究所, 东亚区域气候-环境重点实验室, 北京 100029, 中国.; 邵丽娟, 中国民航西北空中交通管理局气象中心, 西安, 陕西 710082, 中国.
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	马柱国,邵丽娟. 中国北方近百年干湿变化与太平洋年代际振荡的关系[J]. 中国科学院大气物理研究所,2006,30(3):464-474.
APA	马柱国,&邵丽娟.(2006).中国北方近百年干湿变化与太平洋年代际振荡的关系.大气科学,30(3),464-474.
MLA	马柱国,et al."中国北方近百年干湿变化与太平洋年代际振荡的关系".大气科学 30.3(2006):464-474.