干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Multi-Model Projections of Climate Change in Different RCP Scenarios in an Arid Inland Region, Northwest China

Arid

DOI	10.3390/w11020347
	Multi-Model Projections of Climate Change in Different RCP Scenarios in an Arid Inland Region, Northwest China
	Wang, Ruotong 1,2; Cheng, Qiuya 1,2; Liu, Liu 1,2; Yan, Churui 1,2; Huang, Guanhua 1,2,3
通讯作者	Liu, Liu
来源期刊	WATER
EISSN	2073-4441
出版年	2019
卷号	11 期号:2
英文摘要	Based on three IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5), observed meteorological data, ERA-40 reanalysis data, and five preferred GCM (general circulation model) outputs selected from 23 GCMs of CMIP5 (Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project), climate change scenarios including daily precipitation, maximum air temperature, and minimum air temperature from 2021 to 2050 in the Heihe River basin, which is the second largest inland river basin in Northwest China, were generated by constructing a statistical downscaling model (SDSM). Results showed that the SDSM had a good prediction capacity for the air temperature in the Heihe River basin. During the calibration and validation periods from 1961 to 1990 and from 1991 to 2000, respectively, the coefficient of determination (R-2) and the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) were both larger than 0.9, while the root mean square error (RMSE) was within 20%. However, the SDSM showed a relative lower simulation efficiency for precipitation, with R-2 and NSE values of most meteorological stations reaching 0.5, except for stations located in the downstream desert areas. Compared with the baseline period (1976-2005), changes in the annual mean precipitation simulated by different GCMs during 2021-2050 showed great difference in the three RCP scenarios, fluctuating from -10 to +10%, which became much more significant at seasonal and monthly time scales, except for the consistent decreasing trend in summer and increasing trend in spring. However, the maximum and minimum air temperature exhibited a similar increasing tendency during 2021-2050 in all RCP scenarios, with a higher increase in maximum air temperature, which increased as the CO2 concentration of the RCP scenarios increased. The results could provide scientific reference for sustainable agricultural production and water resources management in arid inland areas subject to climate change.
英文关键词	climate change downscaling ensemble projection elevated CO2 uncertainty Hexi Corridor
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	Peoples R China
开放获取类型	gold, Green Submitted
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000460899600166
WOS关键词	HEIHE RIVER-BASIN ; PRECIPITATION ; VARIABILITY ; UNCERTAINTIES ; TEMPERATURE ; PERFORMANCE ; EXTREMES ; IMPACTS ; BLUE ; SDSM
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Water Resources
来源机构	中国农业大学
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/219178
作者单位	1.China Agr Univ, Coll Water Resources & Civil Engn, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China; 2.China Agr Univ, Ctr Agr Water Res China, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China; 3.China Agr Univ, Chinese Israeli Int Ctr Res & Training Agr, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang, Ruotong,Cheng, Qiuya,Liu, Liu,et al. Multi-Model Projections of Climate Change in Different RCP Scenarios in an Arid Inland Region, Northwest China[J]. 中国农业大学,2019,11(2).
APA	Wang, Ruotong,Cheng, Qiuya,Liu, Liu,Yan, Churui,&Huang, Guanhua.(2019).Multi-Model Projections of Climate Change in Different RCP Scenarios in an Arid Inland Region, Northwest China.WATER,11(2).
MLA	Wang, Ruotong,et al."Multi-Model Projections of Climate Change in Different RCP Scenarios in an Arid Inland Region, Northwest China".WATER 11.2(2019).