干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Using a Hydrologic Model to Assess the Performance of Regional Climate Models in a Semi-Arid Watershed in Brazil

Arid

DOI	10.3390/w11010170
	Using a Hydrologic Model to Assess the Performance of Regional Climate Models in a Semi-Arid Watershed in Brazil
	Santos, Carlos A. S.1,2; Rocha, Felizardo. A.1; Ramos, Tiago B.2; Alves, Lincoln M.3; Mateus, Marcos 2; de Oliveira, Rodrigo Proenca 4; Neves, Ramiro 2
通讯作者	Santos, Carlos A. S.
来源期刊	WATER
EISSN	2073-4441
出版年	2019
卷号	11 期号:1
英文摘要	This study assessed the impact of climate change on the hydrological regime of the Paraguacu river basin, northeastern Brazil. Hydrological impact simulations were conducted using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for 2020-2040. Precipitation and surface air temperature projections from two Regional Climate Models (Eta-HadGEM2-ES and Eta-MIROC5) based on IPCC5RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were used as inputs after first applying two bias correction methods (linear scalingLS and distribution mappingDM). The analysis of the impact of climate change on streamflow was done by comparing the maximum, average and reference (Q90) flows of the simulated and observed streamflow records. This study found that both methods were able to correct the climate projection bias, but the DM method showed larger distortion when applied to future scenarios. Climate projections from the Eta-HadGEM2-ES (LS) model showed significant reductions of mean monthly streamflow for all time periods under both RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The Eta-MIROC5 (LS) model showed a lower reduction of the simulated mean monthly streamflow under RCP 4.5 and a decrease of streamflow under RCP 8.5, similar to the Eta-HadGEM2-ES model results. The results of this study provide information for guiding future water resource management in the Paraguacu River Basin and show that the bias correction algorithm also plays a significant role when assessing climate model estimates and their applicability to hydrological modelling.
英文关键词	climate change Paraguacu River Basin semi-arid region SWAT model Eta-HadGEM2-ES Eta-MIROC5 correction bias
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	Brazil ; Portugal
开放获取类型	Green Submitted, gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000459735100168
WOS关键词	METEOROLOGICAL VARIABLES ; BIAS CORRECTION ; RIVER-BASIN ; SIMULATION ; IMPACTS ; AREA ; SWAT
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Water Resources
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/219160
作者单位	1.Inst Fed Bahia, Ave Amazonas 351, BR-45030220 Vitoria Da Conquista, BA, Brazil; 2.Univ Lisbon, Ctr Ciencia & Tecnol Ambiente & Mar MARETEC, Inst Super Tecn, Ave Rovisco Pais 1, P-1049001 Lisbon, Portugal; 3.Inst Pesquisas Espaciais CPTEC INPE, Ctr Previsao Tempo & Estudos Climat, Sao Paulo, Brazil; 4.Univ Lisbon, CERIS, Inst Super Tecn, Ave Rovisco Pais 1, P-1049001 Lisbon, Portugal
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Santos, Carlos A. S.,Rocha, Felizardo. A.,Ramos, Tiago B.,et al. Using a Hydrologic Model to Assess the Performance of Regional Climate Models in a Semi-Arid Watershed in Brazil[J],2019,11(1).
APA	Santos, Carlos A. S..,Rocha, Felizardo. A..,Ramos, Tiago B..,Alves, Lincoln M..,Mateus, Marcos.,...&Neves, Ramiro.(2019).Using a Hydrologic Model to Assess the Performance of Regional Climate Models in a Semi-Arid Watershed in Brazil.WATER,11(1).
MLA	Santos, Carlos A. S.,et al."Using a Hydrologic Model to Assess the Performance of Regional Climate Models in a Semi-Arid Watershed in Brazil".WATER 11.1(2019).