干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Observed, stochastically simulated, and projected precipitation variability in Pakistan

Arid

DOI	10.1007/s00704-018-2734-8
	Observed, stochastically simulated, and projected precipitation variability in Pakistan
	Nabeel, A.1; Athar, H.1,2
通讯作者	Athar, H.
来源期刊	THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN	0177-798X
EISSN	1434-4483
出版年	2019
卷号	137 期号:3-4 页码:2239-2256
英文摘要	Stochastic simulation of daily precipitation at 46 different weather stations across Pakistan is assessed for the 36-year baseline period during 1976-2011 using a stochastic precipitation generator, both on seasonal and annual basis. The precipitation projections of 15 intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) fourth assessment report (AR4)-based Atmospheric Oceanic General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) are assessed for three 20-year projected time periods centered at 2011-2030, 2046-2065, and 2080-2099, which are embedded in the stochastic precipitation generator. The slope difference method is used to delineate the three precipitation regimes in Pakistan: arid, semi-arid, and humid. The change in (i) amount of precipitation, (ii) number of wet days, (iii) amount of precipitation per wet day, and (iv) area of precipitation regimes are assessed for all three projection time periods relative to the baseline period. Pakistan has received 487.48mm of average annual precipitation, with an average of 43.54wetdaysyear(-1) during 1976-2011, whereas simulated average annual precipitation is 513.70mm with 43.60 wet days in a year. The stochastic precipitation generator has less than 2% error in simulating the mean annual numbers of wet days during the baseline period, whereas simulated mean annual precipitation is 11.78mmwetday(-1) versus the observed 11.70mmwetday(-1). There is an underestimation of similar to 1% in simulated mean wet spell length during the baseline period. The AOGCMs display varying increase (decrease) in humid and semi-arid (arid) areas in Pakistan in all the three projected time periods.
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	Pakistan
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000477054700043
WOS关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE PROJECTIONS ; LARS-WG ; WEATHER GENERATOR ; CHANGE IMPACTS ; FUTURE CHANGES ; RIVER-BASIN ; TEMPERATURE ; RAINFALL ; DROUGHT ; MODEL
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/219097
作者单位	1.COMSATS Univ Islamabad, Dept Meteorol, Pk Rd, Islamabad 45550, Pakistan; 2.COMSATS Univ Islamabad, Ctr Climate Change Res & Dev, Islamabad, Pakistan
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Nabeel, A.,Athar, H.. Observed, stochastically simulated, and projected precipitation variability in Pakistan[J],2019,137(3-4):2239-2256.
APA	Nabeel, A.,&Athar, H..(2019).Observed, stochastically simulated, and projected precipitation variability in Pakistan.THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY,137(3-4),2239-2256.
MLA	Nabeel, A.,et al."Observed, stochastically simulated, and projected precipitation variability in Pakistan".THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY 137.3-4(2019):2239-2256.