干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Climate change and water resources in arid regions: uncertainty of the baseline time period

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DOI	10.1007/s00704-018-2671-6
	Climate change and water resources in arid regions: uncertainty of the baseline time period
	Mohammed, Ruqayah 1,2; Scholz, Miklas 2,3,4
通讯作者	Scholz, Miklas
来源期刊	THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN	0177-798X
EISSN	1434-4483
出版年	2019
卷号	137 期号:1-2 页码:1365-1376
英文摘要	Recent climate change studies have given a lot of attention to the uncertainty that stems from general circulation models (GCM), greenhouse gas emission scenarios, hydrological models and downscaling approaches. Yet, the uncertainty that stems from the selection of the baseline period has not been studied. Accordingly, the main research question is as follows: What would be the differences and/or the similarities in the evaluation of climate change impacts between the GCM and the delta perturbation scenarios using different baseline periods? This article addresses this issue through comparison of the results of two different baseline periods, investigating the uncertainties in evaluating climate change impact on the hydrological characteristics of arid regions. The Lower Zab River Basin (Northern Iraq) has been selected as a representative case study. The research outcomes show that the considered baseline periods suggest increases and decreases in the temperature and precipitation (P), respectively, over the 2020, 2050 and 2080 periods. The two climatic scenarios are likely to lead to similar reductions in the reservoir mean monthly flows, and subsequently, their maximum discharge is approximately identical. The predicted reduction in the inflow for the 2080-2099 time period fluctuates between 31 and 49% based on SRA1B and SRA2 scenarios, respectively. The delta perturbation scenario permits the sensitivity of the climatic models to be clearly determined compared to the GCM. The former allows for a wide variety of likely climate change scenarios at the regional level and are easier to generate and apply so that they could complement the latter.
英文关键词	Climate change uncertainty Baseline time period Streamflow prediction Hydro-climatic parameter forecasting
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	Iraq ; England ; Sweden ; South Africa
开放获取类型	Green Published, hybrid
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000475737500094
WOS关键词	ENVIRONMENTAL-MODEL HADGEM1 ; GENERAL-CIRCULATION MODEL ; PHYSICAL-PROPERTIES ; DROUGHT ; ATMOSPHERE ; IMPACT ; VARIABILITY ; VERSION
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/219092
作者单位	1.Univ Babylon, Fac Engn, Hillah, Iraq; 2.Univ Salford, Civil Engn Res Grp, Sch Comp Sci & Engn, Salford,Newton Bldg,Peel Pk Campus, Salford M5 4WT, Lancs, England; 3.Lund Univ, Dept Bldg & Environm Technol, Div Water Resources Engn, Fac Engn, POB 118, SE-22100 Lund, Sweden; 4.Univ Johannesburg, Dept Civil Engn Sci, Sch Civil Engn & Built Environm, Kingsway Campus,POB 524,Aukland Pk, ZA-2006 Johannesburg, South Africa
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mohammed, Ruqayah,Scholz, Miklas. Climate change and water resources in arid regions: uncertainty of the baseline time period[J],2019,137(1-2):1365-1376.
APA	Mohammed, Ruqayah,&Scholz, Miklas.(2019).Climate change and water resources in arid regions: uncertainty of the baseline time period.THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY,137(1-2),1365-1376.
MLA	Mohammed, Ruqayah,et al."Climate change and water resources in arid regions: uncertainty of the baseline time period".THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY 137.1-2(2019):1365-1376.