干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Analysis of trend in temperature and rainfall time series of an Indian arid region: comparative evaluation of salient techniques

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DOI	10.1007/s00704-018-2487-4
	Analysis of trend in temperature and rainfall time series of an Indian arid region: comparative evaluation of salient techniques
	Machiwal, Deepesh 1; Gupta, Ankit 2,3; Jha, Madan Kumar 4; Kamble, Trupti 5
通讯作者	Machiwal, Deepesh
来源期刊	THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN	0177-798X
EISSN	1434-4483
出版年	2019
卷号	136 期号:1-2 页码:301-320
英文摘要	This study investigated trends in 35years (1979-2013) temperature (maximum, T-max and minimum, T-min) and rainfall at annual and seasonal (pre-monsoon, monsoon, post-monsoon, and winter) scales for 31 grid points in a coastal arid region of India. Box-whisker plots of annual temperature and rainfall time series depict systematic spatial gradients. Trends were examined by applying eight tests, such as Kendall rank correlation (KRC), Spearman rank order correlation (SROC), Mann-Kendall (MK), four modified MK tests, and innovative trend analysis (ITA). Trend magnitudes were quantified by Sen's slope estimator, and a new method was adopted to assess the significance of linear trends in MK-test statistics. It was found that the significant serial correlation is prominent in the annual and post-monsoon T-max and T-min, and pre-monsoon T-min. The KRC and MK tests yielded similar results in close resemblance with the SROC test. The performance of two modified MK tests considering variance-correction approaches was found superior to the KRC, MK, modified MK with pre-whitening, and ITA tests. The performance of original MK test is poor due to the presence of serial correlation, whereas the ITA method is over-sensitive in identifying trends. Significantly increasing trends are more prominent in T-min than T-max. Further, both the annual and monsoon rainfall time series have a significantly increasing trend of 9mmyear(-1). The sequential significance of linear trend in MK test-statistics is very strong (R(2)0.90) in the annual and pre-monsoon T-min (90% grid points), and strong (R(2)0.75) in monsoon T-max (68% grid points), monsoon, post-monsoon, and winter T-min (respectively 65, 55, and 48% grid points), as well as in the annual and monsoon rainfalls (respectively 68 and 61% grid points). Finally, this study recommends use of variance-corrected MK test for the precise identification of trends. It is emphasized that the rising T-max may hamper crop growth due to enhanced metabolic-activities and shortened crop-duration. Likewise, increased T-min may result in lesser crop and biomass yields owing to the increased respiration.
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	India
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000464906200022
WOS关键词	MANN-KENDALL TEST ; PRECIPITATION TRENDS ; DETECT TREND ; PERSISTENCE ; VARIABILITY ; REGRESSION ; RAJASTHAN ; TESTS ; STATE ; RIVER
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
来源机构	ICAR Central Arid Zone Research Institute
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/219072
作者单位	1.ICAR Res Complex, CAZRI, Reg Res Stn, Bhuj 370105, Gujarat, India; 2.ISRO, DOS, NRSC, Reg Remote Sensing Ctr West, CAZRI Campus, Jodhpur 342003, Rajasthan, India; 3.ISRO, Natl Remote Sensing Ctr, Hyderabad, Andhra Pradesh, India; 4.Indian Inst Technol, Agr & Food Engn Dept, Kharagpur 721302, W Bengal, India; 5.Phoenix Fdn, Sir Choturam Coll Agr Engn & Technol, Latur 413512, Maharashtra, India
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Machiwal, Deepesh,Gupta, Ankit,Jha, Madan Kumar,et al. Analysis of trend in temperature and rainfall time series of an Indian arid region: comparative evaluation of salient techniques[J]. ICAR Central Arid Zone Research Institute,2019,136(1-2):301-320.
APA	Machiwal, Deepesh,Gupta, Ankit,Jha, Madan Kumar,&Kamble, Trupti.(2019).Analysis of trend in temperature and rainfall time series of an Indian arid region: comparative evaluation of salient techniques.THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY,136(1-2),301-320.
MLA	Machiwal, Deepesh,et al."Analysis of trend in temperature and rainfall time series of an Indian arid region: comparative evaluation of salient techniques".THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY 136.1-2(2019):301-320.