干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Assessment of the impact of climate change on spatiotemporal variability of blue and green water resources under CMIP3 and CMIP5 models in a highly mountainous watershed

Arid

DOI	10.1007/s00704-018-2474-9
	Assessment of the impact of climate change on spatiotemporal variability of blue and green water resources under CMIP3 and CMIP5 models in a highly mountainous watershed
	Farsani, Iman Fazeli 1; Farzaneh, M. R.2; Besalatpour, A. A.3; Salehi, M. H.1; Faramarzi, M.4
通讯作者	Farsani, Iman Fazeli
来源期刊	THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN	0177-798X
EISSN	1434-4483
出版年	2019
卷号	136 期号:1-2 页码:169-184
英文摘要	The variability and uncertainty of water resources associated with climate change are critical issues in arid and semi-arid regions. In this study, we used the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) to evaluate the impact of climate change on the spatial and temporal variability of water resources in the Bazoft watershed, Iran. The analysis was based on changes of blue water flow, green water flow, and green water storage for a future period (2010-2099) compared to a historical period (1992-2008). The r-factor, p-factor, R-2, and Nash-Sutcliff coefficients for discharge were 1.02, 0.89, 0.80, and 0.80 for the calibration period and 1.03, 0.76, 0.57, and 0.59 for the validation period, respectively. General circulation models (GCMs) under 18 emission scenarios from the IPCC's Fourth (AR4) and Fifth (AR5) Assessment Reports were fed into the SWAT model. At the sub-basin level, blue water tended to decrease, while green water flow tended to increase in the future scenario, and green water storage was predicted to continue its historical trend into the future. At the monthly time scale, the 95% prediction uncertainty bands (95PPUs) of blue and green water flows varied widely in the watershed. A large number (18) of climate change scenarios fell within the estimated uncertainty band of the historical period. The large differences among scenarios indicated high levels of uncertainty in the watershed. Our results reveal that the spatial patterns of water resource components and their uncertainties in the context of climate change are notably different between IPCC AR4 and AR5 in the Bazoft watershed. This study provides a strong basis for water supply-demand analyses, and the general analytical framework can be applied to other study areas with similar challenges.
英文关键词	Water resource management RCP emission scenarios Prediction uncertainty SWAT model
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	Iran ; Germany ; Canada
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000464906200014
WOS关键词	RIVER-BASIN ; AVAILABILITY ; FLOWS
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/219070
作者单位	1.Shahrekord Univ, Dept Soil Sci, Coll Agr, POB 115, Shahrekord, Iran; 2.Gorgan Univ Agr Sci & Nat Resources, Dept Water Engn, Gorgan 4918943464, Golestan, Iran; 3.Inter 3 GmbH, Inst Ressourcenmanagement, Otto Suhr Allee 59, D-10585 Berlin, Germany; 4.Univ Alberta, Dept Earth & Atmospher Sci, Edmonton, AB T6G 2E3, Canada
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Farsani, Iman Fazeli,Farzaneh, M. R.,Besalatpour, A. A.,et al. Assessment of the impact of climate change on spatiotemporal variability of blue and green water resources under CMIP3 and CMIP5 models in a highly mountainous watershed[J],2019,136(1-2):169-184.
APA	Farsani, Iman Fazeli,Farzaneh, M. R.,Besalatpour, A. A.,Salehi, M. H.,&Faramarzi, M..(2019).Assessment of the impact of climate change on spatiotemporal variability of blue and green water resources under CMIP3 and CMIP5 models in a highly mountainous watershed.THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY,136(1-2),169-184.
MLA	Farsani, Iman Fazeli,et al."Assessment of the impact of climate change on spatiotemporal variability of blue and green water resources under CMIP3 and CMIP5 models in a highly mountainous watershed".THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY 136.1-2(2019):169-184.