干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Projected Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Drought under Global Warming in Central Asia

Arid

DOI	10.3390/su11164421
	Projected Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Drought under Global Warming in Central Asia
	Zhang, Ruiwen 1,2,3; Zhao, Chengyi1 ; Ma, Xiaofei 2,3; Brindha, Karthikeyan 4; Han, Qifei 1; Li, Chaofan 1; Zhao, Xiaoning 2
通讯作者	Zhao, Chengyi
来源期刊	SUSTAINABILITY
EISSN	2071-1050
出版年	2019
卷号	11 期号:16
英文摘要	Drought, one of the most common natural disasters that have the greatest impact on human social life, has been extremely challenging to accurately assess and predict. With global warming, it has become more important to make accurate drought predictions and assessments. In this study, based on climate model data provided by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), we used the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) to analyze and project drought characteristics and their trends under two global warming scenarios-1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C-in Central Asia. The results showed a marked decline in the PDSI in Central Asia under the influence of global warming, indicating that the drought situation in Central Asia would further worsen under both warming scenarios. Under the 1.5 degrees C warming scenario, the PDSI in Central Asia decreased first and then increased, and the change time was around 2080, while the PDSI values showed a continuous decline after 2025 in the 2.0 degrees C warming scenario. Under the two warming scenarios, the spatial characteristics of dry and wet areas in Central Asia are projected to change significantly in the future. In the 1.5 degrees C warming scenario, the frequency of drought and the proportion of arid areas in Central Asia were significantly higher than those under the 2.0 degrees C warming scenario. Using the Thornthwaite (TH) formula to calculate the PDSI produced an overestimation of drought, and the Penman-Monteith (PM) formula is therefore recommended to calculate the index.
英文关键词	PDSI Central Asia climate model Thornthwaite method Penman-Monteith method
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	Peoples R China ; Germany
开放获取类型	Green Submitted, Green Published, gold
收录类别	SCI-E ; SSCI
WOS记录号	WOS:000484472500165
WOS关键词	1.5 DEGREES-C ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; SEVERITY INDEX ; POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ; SOIL-MOISTURE ; ARID REGION ; PRECIPITATION ; CHINA ; VARIABILITY ; IMPACTS
WOS类目	Green & Sustainable Science & Technology ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
来源机构	中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 ; 南京信息工程大学
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/219019
作者单位	1.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Land Sci Res Ctr, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, Peoples R China; 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, State Key Lab Desert & Oasis Ecol, Urumqi 830011, Peoples R China; 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China; 4.Free Univ Berlin, Inst Geol Sci, Hydrogeol Res Grp, D-10115 Berlin, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, Ruiwen,Zhao, Chengyi,Ma, Xiaofei,et al. Projected Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Drought under Global Warming in Central Asia[J]. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所, 南京信息工程大学,2019,11(16).
APA	Zhang, Ruiwen.,Zhao, Chengyi.,Ma, Xiaofei.,Brindha, Karthikeyan.,Han, Qifei.,...&Zhao, Xiaoning.(2019).Projected Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Drought under Global Warming in Central Asia.SUSTAINABILITY,11(16).
MLA	Zhang, Ruiwen,et al."Projected Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Drought under Global Warming in Central Asia".SUSTAINABILITY 11.16(2019).