干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Species distribution models throughout the invasion history of Palmer amaranth predict regions at risk of future invasion and reveal challenges with modeling rapidly shifting geographic ranges

Arid

DOI	10.1038/s41598-018-38054-9
	Species distribution models throughout the invasion history of Palmer amaranth predict regions at risk of future invasion and reveal challenges with modeling rapidly shifting geographic ranges
	Runquist, Ryan D. Briscoe; Lake, Thomas; Tiffin, Peter; Moeller, David A.
通讯作者	Runquist, Ryan D. Briscoe
来源期刊	SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
ISSN	2045-2322
出版年	2019
卷号	9
英文摘要	Palmer amaranth (Amaranthus palmeri) is an annual plant native to the desert Southwest of the United States and Mexico and has become invasive and caused large economic losses across much of the United States. In order to examine the temporal and spatial dynamics of past invasion, and to predict future invasion, we developed a broad array of species distribution models (SDMs). In particular, we constructed sequential SDMs throughout the invasion history and asked how well those predicted future invasion (1970 to present). We showed that invasion occurred from a restricted set of environments in the native range to a diverse set in the invaded range. Spatial autocorrelation analyses indicated that rapid range expansion was facilitated by stochastic, long-distance dispersal events. Regardless of SDM approach, all SDMs built using datasets from early in the invasion (19702010) performed poorly and failed to predict most of the current invaded range. Together, these results suggest that climate is unlikely to have influenced early stages of range expansion. SDMs that incorporated data from the most recent sampling (2011-2017) performed considerably better, predicted high suitability in regions that have recently become invaded, and identified mean annual temperature as a key factor limiting northward range expansion. Under future climates, models predicted both further northward range expansion and significantly increased suitability across large portions of the U.S. Overall, our results indicate significant challenges for SDMs of invasive species far from climate equilibrium. However, our models based on recent data make more robust predictions for northward range expansion of A. palmeri with climate change.
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	USA
开放获取类型	gold, Green Published
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000459094800107
WOS关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE ; PLANT INVASIONS ; PERFORMANCE ; RESISTANCE ; PREVALENCE ; PLASTICITY ; NEIGHBORS ; EVOLUTION ; COMMON ; WEEDS
WOS类目	Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/218755
作者单位	Univ Minnesota, Dept Plant & Microbial Biol, 1479 Gortner Ave, St Paul, MN 55108 USA
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Runquist, Ryan D. Briscoe,Lake, Thomas,Tiffin, Peter,et al. Species distribution models throughout the invasion history of Palmer amaranth predict regions at risk of future invasion and reveal challenges with modeling rapidly shifting geographic ranges[J],2019,9.
APA	Runquist, Ryan D. Briscoe,Lake, Thomas,Tiffin, Peter,&Moeller, David A..(2019).Species distribution models throughout the invasion history of Palmer amaranth predict regions at risk of future invasion and reveal challenges with modeling rapidly shifting geographic ranges.SCIENTIFIC REPORTS,9.
MLA	Runquist, Ryan D. Briscoe,et al."Species distribution models throughout the invasion history of Palmer amaranth predict regions at risk of future invasion and reveal challenges with modeling rapidly shifting geographic ranges".SCIENTIFIC REPORTS 9(2019).