干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Future climate change likely to reduce the Australian plague locust (Chortoicetes terminifera) seasonal outbreaks

Arid

DOI	10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.439
	Future climate change likely to reduce the Australian plague locust (Chortoicetes terminifera) seasonal outbreaks
	Wang, Bin 1; Deveson, Edward D.2,3; Waters, Cathy 4; Spessa, Allan 2,3; Lawton, Douglas 5; Feng, Puyu 1,6; Liu, De Li 1,7,8
通讯作者	Wang, Bin
来源期刊	SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
ISSN	0048-9697
EISSN	1879-1026
出版年	2019
卷号	668 页码:947-957
英文摘要	Climate is a major limiting factor for insect distributions and it is expected that a changing climate will likely alter spatial patterns of pest outbreaks. The Australian plague locust (APL) Chortoicetes terminifera, is the most economically important locust species in Australia. Invasions cause large scale economic damage to agricultural crops and pastures. Understanding the regional-scale and long-term dynamics is a prerequisite to develop effective control and preventive management strategies. In this study, we used a 32-year locust survey database to uncover the relationship between historical bioclimatic variables and spatial seasonal outbreaks by developing two machine learning species distribution models (SDMs), random forest and boosted regression trees. The explanatory variables were ranked by contribution to the generated models. The bio-dimate models were then projected into a future climate change scenario (RCP8.5) using downscaled 34 global climate models (GCMs) to assess how climate change may alter APL seasonal distribution patterns in eastern Australia. Our results show that the model for the distribution of spring outbreaks performed better than those for summer and autumn, based on statistical evaluation criteria. The spatial models of seasonal outbreaks indicate that the areas subject to APL outbreaks were likely to decrease in all seasons. Multi-GCM ensemble means show the largest decrease in area was for spring outbreaks, reduced by 93-94% by 2071-2090, while the area of summer outbreaks decreased by 78-90%, and 67-74% for autumn outbreaks. The bioclimatic variables could explain 78-98% outbreak areas change. This study represents an important step toward the assessment of the effects of the changing climate on locust outbreaks and can help inform future priorities for regional mitigation efforts in the context of global climate change in eastern Australia. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Australian plague locust Climate change GCMs Species distribution models Outbreak probability Outbreak area Seasonal outbreaks
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	Australia ; USA
开放获取类型	Bronze
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000462776800086
WOS关键词	SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODEL ; GEOGRAPHIC-DISTRIBUTION ; CHANGE IMPACTS ; DESERT LOCUST ; LAND-USE ; SCENARIOS ; PROJECTIONS ; VARIABLES ; RESPONSES ; FORESTS
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
来源机构	Arizona State University
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/218685
作者单位	1.Wagga Wagga Agr Inst, NSW Dept Primary Ind, Wagga Wagga, NSW 2650, Australia; 2.Australian Plague Locust Commiss, GPO Box 858, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia; 3.Australian Natl Univ, Fenner Sch Environm & Soc, Acton, ACT 2601, Australia; 4.Orange Agr Inst, NSW Dept Primary Ind, Orange, NSW 2800, Australia; 5.Arizona State Univ, Sch Life Sci, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA; 6.Univ Technol Sydney, Sch Life Sci, Fac Sci, POB 123, Sydney, NSW 2007, Australia; 7.Univ New South Wales, Climate Change Res Ctr, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia; 8.Univ New South Wales, ARC Ctr Excellence Climate Extremes, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang, Bin,Deveson, Edward D.,Waters, Cathy,et al. Future climate change likely to reduce the Australian plague locust (Chortoicetes terminifera) seasonal outbreaks[J]. Arizona State University,2019,668:947-957.
APA	Wang, Bin.,Deveson, Edward D..,Waters, Cathy.,Spessa, Allan.,Lawton, Douglas.,...&Liu, De Li.(2019).Future climate change likely to reduce the Australian plague locust (Chortoicetes terminifera) seasonal outbreaks.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,668,947-957.
MLA	Wang, Bin,et al."Future climate change likely to reduce the Australian plague locust (Chortoicetes terminifera) seasonal outbreaks".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 668(2019):947-957.