干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Reliability of the global climate models during 1961-1999 in arid and semiarid regions of China

Arid

DOI	10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.188
	Reliability of the global climate models during 1961-1999 in arid and semiarid regions of China
	Yang, Yanfen 1; Bai, Lei 2,3; Wang, Bing 1; Wu, Jing 4; Fu, Suhua 1
通讯作者	Fu, Suhua
来源期刊	SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
ISSN	0048-9697
EISSN	1879-1026
出版年	2019
卷号	667 页码:271-286
英文摘要	General circulation models (GCMs) are useful tools for investigating mechanisms of climate change and projecting future climate change scenarios, but have large uncertainties and biases. Accurate models are of significant importance for agriculture, water resources management, hydrological simulation, and species distribution. In this study, we examined the precipitation and temperature reproducibility of 34 GCMs during the period from 1961 to 1999 over arid and semiarid regions of China. The study area was divided into eight sub-regions; each represented a specific topography. The evaluation was conducted for the whole study area and the sub-regions. Spatial and temporal indices and weighting methodology were used to comprehensively illustrate the models' reproducibility. The results showed that the simulation ability during winter outperformed than that during summer (the weight was 0.192 higher for precipitation and 0.044 higher for temperature during winter than that during summer over the whole study area). Precipitation was more accurately simulated during spring than during autumn as opposed to temperature ( the weight was 0.124 higher during spring than during autumn for precipitation and 0.1 higher during autumn than during spring for temperature for the whole region). For precipitation, the simulation ability in the basins was the best, followed by plateaus and mountains; the weights were 0.462, 0.308, and 0231, respectively. For temperature, the mountains and plateaus had the best and poorest reproducibility, at weights of 0.446 and 0.198, respectively. The top models for precipitation and temperature at different spatial scales (whole study area, three topography types, eight sub-regions) were recommended. The results served as a reference for model selection in future studies regarding impacts of climate change on eco-hydrology. (C) 2019 Published by Elsevier B.V.
英文关键词	GCM Precipitation Temperature Reproducibility Seasonal Topography
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	Peoples R China
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000461676600030
WOS关键词	BIAS CORRECTION METHODS ; TARIM RIVER-BASIN ; LOESS PLATEAU ; HYDROLOGIC IMPACT ; TROPICAL OCEANS ; PRECIPITATION ; CMIP5 ; SIMULATIONS ; TEMPERATURE ; VARIABILITY
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
来源机构	西北农林科技大学 ; 新疆大学
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/218679
作者单位	1.Northwest A&F Univ, Inst Soil & Water Conservat, State Key Lab Soil Eros & Dryland Farming Loess P, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China; 2.Xinjiang Univ, Coll Resources & Environm Sci, Urumqi 830046, Peoples R China; 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China; 4.Lanzhou Cent Meteorol Observ, Lanzhou 730020, Gansu, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yang, Yanfen,Bai, Lei,Wang, Bing,et al. Reliability of the global climate models during 1961-1999 in arid and semiarid regions of China[J]. 西北农林科技大学, 新疆大学,2019,667:271-286.
APA	Yang, Yanfen,Bai, Lei,Wang, Bing,Wu, Jing,&Fu, Suhua.(2019).Reliability of the global climate models during 1961-1999 in arid and semiarid regions of China.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,667,271-286.
MLA	Yang, Yanfen,et al."Reliability of the global climate models during 1961-1999 in arid and semiarid regions of China".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 667(2019):271-286.