干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Dynamic projection of ecological risk in the Manas River basin based on terrain gradients

Arid

DOI	10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.10.382
	Dynamic projection of ecological risk in the Manas River basin based on terrain gradients
	Xue, Lianqing 1,2; Zhu, Boli 1; Wu, Yiping 3; Wei, Guanghui 4; Liao, Shumin 1; Yang, Changbing 5; Wang, Jing 1; Zhang, Hui 1; Ren, Lei 1; Han, Qiang 1
通讯作者	Xue, Lianqing
来源期刊	SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
ISSN	0048-9697
EISSN	1879-1026
出版年	2019
卷号	653 页码:283-293
英文摘要	With large-scale developments, the Manas River Basin (MRB) is in an extreme imbalance especially in land use, thus causing a series of ecological problems. A reliable dynamic ecological risk assessment is expected to provide useful information for the economic development. Through coupling spatial Cellular Automaton-Markov (CA-Markov) model and Landsat satellite images in 2000, 2008 and 2016, we forecasted the land use maps in 2024 and 2032. Based on the ecological risk model, we evaluated the ecological risk at landscape level from 2000 to 2032. More importantly, an improved evaluation of ecological risk was proposed based on terrain gradients and the correlation between terrain niche index (TNI) and future ecological risk was analyzed. The results showed that the artificial oases and urban are expanding, while the natural grassland is shrinking. Corresponding to the rapid development stage and stable consolidation stage, farmland will be followed by a slower increase (2016-2032) after a rapid increase (2000-2016), and water decreases first but then is projected to recover. As the overall spatial diversity increasing, the ecological risk in the whole basin is growing, especially in grassland. Compared with the stable critical state in artificial landscape, the future ecological risks in natural landscape tend to increase due to the cumulative effects of human activities. Also, we found that the great ecological risk mainly happens in high altitude and complex terrain or low altitude and flat terrain areas. The future ecological risk in medium terrain niche index (TNI) gradient will increase, while it will decrease in the lowest. Above all, the proposed framework can do well in forecasting ecological risk at landscape level, and can help simply infer the changes of ecological risk based on terrain. (c) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Land use change CA-Markov model Ecological risk assessment The terrain niche index
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	Peoples R China ; USA
收录类别	SCI-E ; SSCI
WOS记录号	WOS:000458626800029
WOS关键词	LAND-USE CHANGE ; CELLULAR-AUTOMATA ; COVER CHANGE ; ECOSYSTEM SERVICES ; USE/LAND-COVER ; URBAN-GROWTH ; MARKOV-CHAIN ; IMPACT ; VEGETATION ; ELEVATION
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
来源机构	河海大学
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/218626
作者单位	1.Hohai Univ, Coll Hydrol & Water Resources, Nanjing 210098, Jiangsu, Peoples R China; 2.Hohai Univ, Wentian Coll, Maanshan 243000, Peoples R China; 3.Xi An Jiao Tong Univ, Dept Earth & Environm Sci, Xian 710049, Shaanxi, Peoples R China; 4.Tarim River Basin Adm, Korla 841000, Peoples R China; 5.Environm Data Tech Inc, San Antonio, TX 78240 USA
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xue, Lianqing,Zhu, Boli,Wu, Yiping,et al. Dynamic projection of ecological risk in the Manas River basin based on terrain gradients[J]. 河海大学,2019,653:283-293.
APA	Xue, Lianqing.,Zhu, Boli.,Wu, Yiping.,Wei, Guanghui.,Liao, Shumin.,...&Han, Qiang.(2019).Dynamic projection of ecological risk in the Manas River basin based on terrain gradients.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,653,283-293.
MLA	Xue, Lianqing,et al."Dynamic projection of ecological risk in the Manas River basin based on terrain gradients".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 653(2019):283-293.