干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Impacts of rising temperature, carbon dioxide concentration and sea level on wheat production in North Nile delta

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DOI	10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.10.209
	Impacts of rising temperature, carbon dioxide concentration and sea level on wheat production in North Nile delta
	Kheir, Ahmed M. S.1; El Baroudy, Ahmed 2; Aiad, Mahmoud A.1; Zoghdan, Medhat G.1; Abd El-Aziz, Mohamed A.1; Ali, Marwa G. M.1; Fullen, Michael A.3
通讯作者	Kheir, Ahmed M. S.
来源期刊	SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
ISSN	0048-9697
EISSN	1879-1026
出版年	2019
卷号	651 页码:3161-3173
英文摘要	Climate change poses a serious threat to arid and low elevation coastal zones. Kafrelsheikh governorate, as a large agricultural and coastal region on the Egyptian North Nile Delta, is one of the most vulnerable areas to higher temperature and global sea level rise. Two DSSAT wheat models (CERES and N-Wheat) were calibrated using a local cultivar (Misr3) grown under irrigated conditions in Egypt. Experimental data of two successive growing seasons during 2014/2015 and 2015/2016 were used for calibration using different treatments of irrigation, planting dates and fertilization. Both models simulated the phenology and wheat yield well, with root mean square deviation of <10%, and d-index >0.80. Climate change sensitivity analysis showed that rising temperature by 1 degrees C to 4 degrees C decreased wheat yield by 17.6%. However, elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased yield and could overtake some of the negative temperature responses. Sea level rise by 2.0 m will reduce the extent of agricultural land on the North Nile Delta of Egypt by similar to 60% creating an additional challenge to wheat production in this region. (C)2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	DSSAT CERES N-Wheat Food security Climate change
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	Egypt ; England
开放获取类型	Green Submitted
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000450551600141
WOS关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE ; CERES-WHEAT ; ELEVATED CO2 ; APSIM-WHEAT ; CROP YIELD ; MODEL ; PHENOLOGY ; FUTURE ; GROWTH ; RISKS
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/218612
作者单位	1.Agr Res Ctr, Soils Water & Environm Res Inst, 9 Cairo Univ St, Giza, Egypt; 2.Tanta Univ, Dept Soil & Water, Fac Agr, Tanta, Egypt; 3.Univ Wolverhampton, Wolverhampton WV1 1LY, W Midlands, England
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Kheir, Ahmed M. S.,El Baroudy, Ahmed,Aiad, Mahmoud A.,et al. Impacts of rising temperature, carbon dioxide concentration and sea level on wheat production in North Nile delta[J],2019,651:3161-3173.
APA	Kheir, Ahmed M. S..,El Baroudy, Ahmed.,Aiad, Mahmoud A..,Zoghdan, Medhat G..,Abd El-Aziz, Mohamed A..,...&Fullen, Michael A..(2019).Impacts of rising temperature, carbon dioxide concentration and sea level on wheat production in North Nile delta.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,651,3161-3173.
MLA	Kheir, Ahmed M. S.,et al."Impacts of rising temperature, carbon dioxide concentration and sea level on wheat production in North Nile delta".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 651(2019):3161-3173.