干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Terrestrial ecosystem scenarios and their response to climate change in Eurasia

Arid

DOI	10.1007/s11430-018-9374-3
	Terrestrial ecosystem scenarios and their response to climate change in Eurasia
	Fan, Zemeng 1,2,3; Fan, Bin 1,2; Yue, Tianxiang 1,2,3
通讯作者	Fan, Zemeng ; Yue, Tianxiang
来源期刊	SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES
ISSN	1674-7313
EISSN	1869-1897
出版年	2019
卷号	62 期号:10 页码:1607-1618
英文摘要	During the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), simulating the change trends of terrestrial ecosystems in Eurasia under different climate scenarios is a key ecological issue. The HLZ ecosystem model was improved to simulate the changes in the spatial distribution and types of terrestrial ecosystems in Eurasia based on the climate data from Eurasian meteorological stations from 1981 to 2010 and the data from the RCP26, RCP45 and RCP85 scenarios released by CMIP5 from 2010 to 2100. Ecological diversity and patch connectivity index models were used to quantitatively calculate the future changes in ecological diversity and patch connectivity of terrestrial ecosystems in Eurasia. The results show that (1) cold temperate wet forest, cool temperate moist forest and desert are the major terrestrial ecosystem types and cover 36.71% of the total area of Eurasia. (2) Under all three scenarios, the polar/nival area would shrink more than other terrestrial ecosystem types and would decrease by 26.75 million km(2) per decade on average, and the subpolar/alpine moist tundra would have the fastest decreasing rate of 10.49% per decade on average from 2010 to 2100. (3) Under the RCP85 scenario, the rate of terrestrial ecosystem changes will be greater than that under the other two scenarios, and the subpolar/alpine moist tundra would exhibit the fastest decreasing rate of 10.88% per decade from 2010 to 2100. (4) The ecological diversity would generally show decreasing trends and decrease by 0.09%, 0.13% and 0.16% per decade on average under the RCP26, RCP45 and RCP85 scenarios, respectively. (5) The patch connectivity would first increase and then decrease under all three scenarios. In general, the trends of the changes in terrestrial ecosystems would show an obvious difference in the different regions throughout the BRI area.
英文关键词	Climate change HLZ ecosystem model Terrestrial ecosystem Scenarios Eurasia
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	Peoples R China
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000488857900008
WOS关键词	LAND-COVER ; VEGETATION TYPES ; BIOSPHERE MODEL ; LOESS PLATEAU ; GLOBAL CHANGE ; CENTRAL-ASIA ; LIFE ZONES ; RESILIENCE ; PHENOLOGY ; RAINFALL
WOS类目	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS研究方向	Geology
来源机构	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/218572
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China; 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China; 3.Jiangsu Ctr Collaborat Innovat Geog Informat Reso, Nanjing 210023, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Fan, Zemeng,Fan, Bin,Yue, Tianxiang. Terrestrial ecosystem scenarios and their response to climate change in Eurasia[J]. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,2019,62(10):1607-1618.
APA	Fan, Zemeng,Fan, Bin,&Yue, Tianxiang.(2019).Terrestrial ecosystem scenarios and their response to climate change in Eurasia.SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES,62(10),1607-1618.
MLA	Fan, Zemeng,et al."Terrestrial ecosystem scenarios and their response to climate change in Eurasia".SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES 62.10(2019):1607-1618.