干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Applying the AOGCM-AR5 models to the assessments of land suitability for walnut cultivation in response to climate change: A case study of Iran

Arid

DOI	10.1371/journal.pone.0218725
	Applying the AOGCM-AR5 models to the assessments of land suitability for walnut cultivation in response to climate change: A case study of Iran
	Vahdati, Kourosh 1; Bavani, Ali Reza Massah 2; Khosh-Khui, Morteza 3; Fakour, Poya 2; Sarikhani, Saadat 1
通讯作者	Vahdati, Kourosh
来源期刊	PLOS ONE
ISSN	1932-6203
出版年	2019
卷号	14 期号:6
英文摘要	Due to higher temperatures and lower water availability, climate change is likely to have a major impact on walnut production in the near future. Climate change will alter the land suitability for walnut cultivation around the world, especially in arid and semi-arid regions like Iran. Here, land suitability for the cultivation of walnut (Juglans regia L.) in Iran was determined using the GIS for present and future conditions (2020-2049) with an approach to climate change. Accordingly, data from 375 synoptic stations throughout Iran were gathered for climatic factors including average, minimum and maximum temperatures, relative humidity and chilling requirement. Also, ASTER sensors (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer) and their data provided this research with cells that make a precision of 150 m (5 s), and the data were used for gauging geological parameters such as altitude and land slope. The electrical conductivity (EC) of soil and water were informed by the data bank of the Iranian Water Resources Management. The results of temperature simulations for the future (2020-2049) were analyzed by 21 AOGCM-AR5 models under the RCP4.5 emission scenario. In the first phase of evaluations, the maps of land suitability were constructed for present conditions by considering a network of the above-mentioned parameters. By combining these layers of information, the final map of land suitability was illustrated for walnut cultivation. In the second phase, the NEX-GDDP was used in order to determine land suitability for the future (2020-2049). The results showed that Iran currently has 582844 km(2) of land suitable for walnut cultivation. However, the future will see less suitable lands: the current area will be reduced by 6.19%, from 582844 km(2) to 546710 km(2). In general, the northern, northwestern and western margins of Iran are currently suitable for walnut cultivation. By approximation, these lands will also be major areas for prospective cultivations of walnut in the future (2020-2049), even though their current stretch will be reduced.
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	Iran
开放获取类型	Green Published, gold, Green Submitted
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000484911900034
WOS关键词	WINTER CHILL ; FRUIT ; IMPACTS
WOS类目	Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/218117
作者单位	1.Univ Tehran, Dept Hort, Coll Aburaihan, Tehran, Iran; 2.Univ Tehran, Dept Irrigat & Drainage, Coll Aburaihan, Tehran, Iran; 3.Shiraz Univ, Coll Agr, Dept Hort Sci, Shiraz, Iran
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Vahdati, Kourosh,Bavani, Ali Reza Massah,Khosh-Khui, Morteza,et al. Applying the AOGCM-AR5 models to the assessments of land suitability for walnut cultivation in response to climate change: A case study of Iran[J],2019,14(6).
APA	Vahdati, Kourosh,Bavani, Ali Reza Massah,Khosh-Khui, Morteza,Fakour, Poya,&Sarikhani, Saadat.(2019).Applying the AOGCM-AR5 models to the assessments of land suitability for walnut cultivation in response to climate change: A case study of Iran.PLOS ONE,14(6).
MLA	Vahdati, Kourosh,et al."Applying the AOGCM-AR5 models to the assessments of land suitability for walnut cultivation in response to climate change: A case study of Iran".PLOS ONE 14.6(2019).