Arid
DOI10.1002/met.1759
Calculating and communicating ensemble-based volcanic ash dosage and concentration risk for aviation
Prata, Andrew T.1; Dacre, Helen F.1; Irvine, Emma A.1; Mathieu, Eric1; Shine, Keith P.1; Clarkson, Rory J.2
通讯作者Prata, Andrew T.
来源期刊METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS
ISSN1350-4827
EISSN1469-8080
出版年2019
卷号26期号:2页码:253-266
英文摘要During volcanic eruptions, aviation stakeholders require an assessment of the volcanic ash hazard. Operators and regulators are required to make fast decisions based on deterministic forecasts, which are subject to various sources of uncertainty. For a robust decision to be made, a measure of the uncertainty of the hazard should be considered, but this can lead to added complexity preventing fast decision-making. A proof-of-concept risk-matrix approach is presented that combines uncertainty estimation and volcanic ash hazard forecasting into a simple warning system for aviation. To demonstrate the methodology, an ensemble of 600 dispersion model simulations is used to characterize uncertainty (due to eruption source parameters, meteorology and internal model parameters) in ash dosages and concentrations for a hypothetical Icelandic eruption. To simulate aircraft encounters with volcanic ash, trans-Atlantic air routes between New York (JFK) and London (LHR) are generated using time-optimal routing software. This approach was developed in collaboration with operators, regulators and engine manufacturers; it demonstrates how an assessment of ash dosage and concentration risk can be used to make fast and robust flight-planning decisions, even when the model uncertainty spans several orders of magnitude. The results highlight the benefit of using an ensemble over a deterministic forecast and a new method for visualizing dosage risk along flight paths. The risk-matrix approach is applicable to other aviation hazards such as sulphur dioxide (SO2) dosages, desert dust, aircraft icing and clear-air turbulence, and is expected to aid flight-planning decisions by improving the communication of ensemble-based forecasts to aviation.
英文关键词ash concentration ash dosage aviation dispersion modelling ensemble forecasting flight planning risk matrix
类型Article
语种英语
国家England
开放获取类型Bronze, Green Accepted
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000463949000009
WOS关键词DISPERSION MODEL ; PREDICTION ; TRANSPORT ; AIRCRAFT ; CLIMATE ; SENSITIVITY ; EMISSIONS ; FORECASTS ; WEATHER ; ECMWF
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/217586
作者单位1.Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Reading, Berks, England;
2.Rolls Royce PLC, Engine Environm Protect, Derby, England
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GB/T 7714
Prata, Andrew T.,Dacre, Helen F.,Irvine, Emma A.,et al. Calculating and communicating ensemble-based volcanic ash dosage and concentration risk for aviation[J],2019,26(2):253-266.
APA Prata, Andrew T.,Dacre, Helen F.,Irvine, Emma A.,Mathieu, Eric,Shine, Keith P.,&Clarkson, Rory J..(2019).Calculating and communicating ensemble-based volcanic ash dosage and concentration risk for aviation.METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS,26(2),253-266.
MLA Prata, Andrew T.,et al."Calculating and communicating ensemble-based volcanic ash dosage and concentration risk for aviation".METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS 26.2(2019):253-266.
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