Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
DOI | 10.1002/met.1759 |
Calculating and communicating ensemble-based volcanic ash dosage and concentration risk for aviation | |
Prata, Andrew T.1; Dacre, Helen F.1; Irvine, Emma A.1; Mathieu, Eric1; Shine, Keith P.1; Clarkson, Rory J.2 | |
通讯作者 | Prata, Andrew T. |
来源期刊 | METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS
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ISSN | 1350-4827 |
EISSN | 1469-8080 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 26期号:2页码:253-266 |
英文摘要 | During volcanic eruptions, aviation stakeholders require an assessment of the volcanic ash hazard. Operators and regulators are required to make fast decisions based on deterministic forecasts, which are subject to various sources of uncertainty. For a robust decision to be made, a measure of the uncertainty of the hazard should be considered, but this can lead to added complexity preventing fast decision-making. A proof-of-concept risk-matrix approach is presented that combines uncertainty estimation and volcanic ash hazard forecasting into a simple warning system for aviation. To demonstrate the methodology, an ensemble of 600 dispersion model simulations is used to characterize uncertainty (due to eruption source parameters, meteorology and internal model parameters) in ash dosages and concentrations for a hypothetical Icelandic eruption. To simulate aircraft encounters with volcanic ash, trans-Atlantic air routes between New York (JFK) and London (LHR) are generated using time-optimal routing software. This approach was developed in collaboration with operators, regulators and engine manufacturers; it demonstrates how an assessment of ash dosage and concentration risk can be used to make fast and robust flight-planning decisions, even when the model uncertainty spans several orders of magnitude. The results highlight the benefit of using an ensemble over a deterministic forecast and a new method for visualizing dosage risk along flight paths. The risk-matrix approach is applicable to other aviation hazards such as sulphur dioxide (SO2) dosages, desert dust, aircraft icing and clear-air turbulence, and is expected to aid flight-planning decisions by improving the communication of ensemble-based forecasts to aviation. |
英文关键词 | ash concentration ash dosage aviation dispersion modelling ensemble forecasting flight planning risk matrix |
类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England |
开放获取类型 | Bronze, Green Accepted |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000463949000009 |
WOS关键词 | DISPERSION MODEL ; PREDICTION ; TRANSPORT ; AIRCRAFT ; CLIMATE ; SENSITIVITY ; EMISSIONS ; FORECASTS ; WEATHER ; ECMWF |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
资源类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/217586 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Reading, Berks, England; 2.Rolls Royce PLC, Engine Environm Protect, Derby, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Prata, Andrew T.,Dacre, Helen F.,Irvine, Emma A.,et al. Calculating and communicating ensemble-based volcanic ash dosage and concentration risk for aviation[J],2019,26(2):253-266. |
APA | Prata, Andrew T.,Dacre, Helen F.,Irvine, Emma A.,Mathieu, Eric,Shine, Keith P.,&Clarkson, Rory J..(2019).Calculating and communicating ensemble-based volcanic ash dosage and concentration risk for aviation.METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS,26(2),253-266. |
MLA | Prata, Andrew T.,et al."Calculating and communicating ensemble-based volcanic ash dosage and concentration risk for aviation".METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS 26.2(2019):253-266. |
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