干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Calculating and communicating ensemble-based volcanic ash dosage and concentration risk for aviation

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DOI	10.1002/met.1759
	Calculating and communicating ensemble-based volcanic ash dosage and concentration risk for aviation
	Prata, Andrew T.1; Dacre, Helen F.1; Irvine, Emma A.1; Mathieu, Eric 1; Shine, Keith P.1; Clarkson, Rory J.2
通讯作者	Prata, Andrew T.
来源期刊	METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS
ISSN	1350-4827
EISSN	1469-8080
出版年	2019
卷号	26 期号:2 页码:253-266
英文摘要	During volcanic eruptions, aviation stakeholders require an assessment of the volcanic ash hazard. Operators and regulators are required to make fast decisions based on deterministic forecasts, which are subject to various sources of uncertainty. For a robust decision to be made, a measure of the uncertainty of the hazard should be considered, but this can lead to added complexity preventing fast decision-making. A proof-of-concept risk-matrix approach is presented that combines uncertainty estimation and volcanic ash hazard forecasting into a simple warning system for aviation. To demonstrate the methodology, an ensemble of 600 dispersion model simulations is used to characterize uncertainty (due to eruption source parameters, meteorology and internal model parameters) in ash dosages and concentrations for a hypothetical Icelandic eruption. To simulate aircraft encounters with volcanic ash, trans-Atlantic air routes between New York (JFK) and London (LHR) are generated using time-optimal routing software. This approach was developed in collaboration with operators, regulators and engine manufacturers; it demonstrates how an assessment of ash dosage and concentration risk can be used to make fast and robust flight-planning decisions, even when the model uncertainty spans several orders of magnitude. The results highlight the benefit of using an ensemble over a deterministic forecast and a new method for visualizing dosage risk along flight paths. The risk-matrix approach is applicable to other aviation hazards such as sulphur dioxide (SO2) dosages, desert dust, aircraft icing and clear-air turbulence, and is expected to aid flight-planning decisions by improving the communication of ensemble-based forecasts to aviation.
英文关键词	ash concentration ash dosage aviation dispersion modelling ensemble forecasting flight planning risk matrix
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	England
开放获取类型	Bronze, Green Accepted
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000463949000009
WOS关键词	DISPERSION MODEL ; PREDICTION ; TRANSPORT ; AIRCRAFT ; CLIMATE ; SENSITIVITY ; EMISSIONS ; FORECASTS ; WEATHER ; ECMWF
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/217586
作者单位	1.Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Reading, Berks, England; 2.Rolls Royce PLC, Engine Environm Protect, Derby, England
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Prata, Andrew T.,Dacre, Helen F.,Irvine, Emma A.,et al. Calculating and communicating ensemble-based volcanic ash dosage and concentration risk for aviation[J],2019,26(2):253-266.
APA	Prata, Andrew T.,Dacre, Helen F.,Irvine, Emma A.,Mathieu, Eric,Shine, Keith P.,&Clarkson, Rory J..(2019).Calculating and communicating ensemble-based volcanic ash dosage and concentration risk for aviation.METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS,26(2),253-266.
MLA	Prata, Andrew T.,et al."Calculating and communicating ensemble-based volcanic ash dosage and concentration risk for aviation".METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS 26.2(2019):253-266.