干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Modeling the response of an endangered flagship predator to climate change in Iran

Arid

DOI	10.1007/s13364-018-0384-y
	Modeling the response of an endangered flagship predator to climate change in Iran
	Ashrafzadeh, Mohammad Reza 1; Naghipour, Ali Asghar 1; Haidarian, Maryam 2; Khorozyan, Igor 3
通讯作者	Ashrafzadeh, Mohammad Reza
来源期刊	MAMMAL RESEARCH
ISSN	2199-2401
EISSN	2199-241X
出版年	2019
卷号	64 期号:1 页码:39-51
英文摘要	Land use changes in suitable areas, habitat loss, and fragmentation are likely to be the most important consequences of climate change for wildlife populations. Yet, little is known about the response of large carnivores to climate change, globally and regionally. In this study, we utilized the ensemble modeling based on six species distribution models in order to predict the spatial vulnerability of the globally endangered Persian leopard (Panthera pardus saxicolor) to climate change in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province, a semi-arid region in Iran. We showed that about 12.12 to 22.38% of leopard habitats in the area may be lost by 2050 due to climate change under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) within the framework of two general circulation models (GCMs). In contrast, 1.87 to 13.01% of currently unsuitable habitats can become suitable with climate change. Overall, a considerable portion of the leopard range will remain intact under global warming, but still habitat loss to climate change will vary from 5.89 to 14.59%. Thus, large-scale but locally focused and flexible conservation strategies should be applied in intact and sensitive areas so that to prevent the intensification of anthropogenic threats such as overgrazing and forest degradation from collection of firewood, charcoal, and medicinal plants under changing climate.
英文关键词	Climate adaptability Conservation Fragmentation Habitat loss Persian leopard Zagros
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	Iran ; Germany
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000455666000005
WOS关键词	LEOPARD PANTHERA-PARDUS ; PERSIAN LEOPARD ; SNOW LEOPARD ; BIODIVERSITY HOTSPOTS ; NATIONAL-PARK ; CONSERVATION ; MANAGEMENT ; HABITAT ; DISTRIBUTIONS ; PREDICTION
WOS类目	Zoology
WOS研究方向	Zoology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/217526
作者单位	1.Shahrekord Univ, Fac Nat Resources & Earth Sci, Shahrekord, Iran; 2.Sari Univ Agr Sci & Nat Resources, Fac Nat Resources, Sari, Iran; 3.Georg August Univ Gottingen, JF Blumenbach Inst Zool & Anthropol, Workgrp Endangered Species, Gottingen, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ashrafzadeh, Mohammad Reza,Naghipour, Ali Asghar,Haidarian, Maryam,et al. Modeling the response of an endangered flagship predator to climate change in Iran[J],2019,64(1):39-51.
APA	Ashrafzadeh, Mohammad Reza,Naghipour, Ali Asghar,Haidarian, Maryam,&Khorozyan, Igor.(2019).Modeling the response of an endangered flagship predator to climate change in Iran.MAMMAL RESEARCH,64(1),39-51.
MLA	Ashrafzadeh, Mohammad Reza,et al."Modeling the response of an endangered flagship predator to climate change in Iran".MAMMAL RESEARCH 64.1(2019):39-51.