Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
DOI | 10.2166/wcc.2018.174 |
Modeling, prediction and trend assessment of drought in Iran using standardized precipitation index | |
Bahrami, Mehdi1; Bazrkar, Samira1; Zarei, Abdol Rassoul2 | |
通讯作者 | Bahrami, Mehdi |
来源期刊 | JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE
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ISSN | 2040-2244 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 10期号:1页码:181-196 |
英文摘要 | Drought as an exigent natural phenomenon, with high frequency in arid and semi-arid regions, leads to enormous damage to agriculture, economy, and environment. In this study, the seasonal Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) drought index and time series models were employed to model and predict seasonal drought using climate data of 38 Iranian synoptic stations during 1967-2014. In order to model and predict seasonal drought ITSM (Interactive Time Series Modeling) statistical software was used. According to the calculated seasonal SPI, within the study area, drought severity classes 4 and 3 had the greatest occurrence frequency, while classes 6 and 7 had the least occurrence frequency. Results indicated that the best fitted models were Moving-Average or MA (5) Innovations and MA (5) Hannan-Rissenen, with 60.53 and 15.79 percentage, respectively. On the other hand, results of the prediction as well, indicated that drought class 4 with the highest percentages, was the most abundant class over the study area and drought class 7 was the least frequent class. According to results of trend analysis, without attention to significance of them, observed seasonal SPI data series (1967-2014), in 84.21% of synoptic stations had a negative trend, but this percentage changes to 86.84% when studying the combination of observed and predicted simultaneously (1967-2019). |
英文关键词 | modeling prediction Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) statistical test time series models |
类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Iran |
开放获取类型 | Bronze |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000461208500015 |
WOS关键词 | EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ; RAINFALL ; REGIONS ; SPI |
WOS类目 | Water Resources |
WOS研究方向 | Water Resources |
资源类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/217411 |
作者单位 | 1.Fasa Univ, Fac Agr, Dept Water Engn, Fasa, Iran; 2.Fasa Univ, Fac Agr, Dept Range & Watershed Management, Fasa, Iran |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Bahrami, Mehdi,Bazrkar, Samira,Zarei, Abdol Rassoul. Modeling, prediction and trend assessment of drought in Iran using standardized precipitation index[J],2019,10(1):181-196. |
APA | Bahrami, Mehdi,Bazrkar, Samira,&Zarei, Abdol Rassoul.(2019).Modeling, prediction and trend assessment of drought in Iran using standardized precipitation index.JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE,10(1),181-196. |
MLA | Bahrami, Mehdi,et al."Modeling, prediction and trend assessment of drought in Iran using standardized precipitation index".JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE 10.1(2019):181-196. |
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