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DOI	10.2166/wcc.2018.174
	Modeling, prediction and trend assessment of drought in Iran using standardized precipitation index
	Bahrami, Mehdi 1; Bazrkar, Samira 1; Zarei, Abdol Rassoul 2
通讯作者	Bahrami, Mehdi
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE
ISSN	2040-2244
出版年	2019
卷号	10 期号:1 页码:181-196
英文摘要	Drought as an exigent natural phenomenon, with high frequency in arid and semi-arid regions, leads to enormous damage to agriculture, economy, and environment. In this study, the seasonal Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) drought index and time series models were employed to model and predict seasonal drought using climate data of 38 Iranian synoptic stations during 1967-2014. In order to model and predict seasonal drought ITSM (Interactive Time Series Modeling) statistical software was used. According to the calculated seasonal SPI, within the study area, drought severity classes 4 and 3 had the greatest occurrence frequency, while classes 6 and 7 had the least occurrence frequency. Results indicated that the best fitted models were Moving-Average or MA (5) Innovations and MA (5) Hannan-Rissenen, with 60.53 and 15.79 percentage, respectively. On the other hand, results of the prediction as well, indicated that drought class 4 with the highest percentages, was the most abundant class over the study area and drought class 7 was the least frequent class. According to results of trend analysis, without attention to significance of them, observed seasonal SPI data series (1967-2014), in 84.21% of synoptic stations had a negative trend, but this percentage changes to 86.84% when studying the combination of observed and predicted simultaneously (1967-2019).
英文关键词	modeling prediction Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) statistical test time series models
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	Iran
开放获取类型	Bronze
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000461208500015
WOS关键词	EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ; RAINFALL ; REGIONS ; SPI
WOS类目	Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Water Resources
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/217411
作者单位	1.Fasa Univ, Fac Agr, Dept Water Engn, Fasa, Iran; 2.Fasa Univ, Fac Agr, Dept Range & Watershed Management, Fasa, Iran
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bahrami, Mehdi,Bazrkar, Samira,Zarei, Abdol Rassoul. Modeling, prediction and trend assessment of drought in Iran using standardized precipitation index[J],2019,10(1):181-196.
APA	Bahrami, Mehdi,Bazrkar, Samira,&Zarei, Abdol Rassoul.(2019).Modeling, prediction and trend assessment of drought in Iran using standardized precipitation index.JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE,10(1),181-196.
MLA	Bahrami, Mehdi,et al."Modeling, prediction and trend assessment of drought in Iran using standardized precipitation index".JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE 10.1(2019):181-196.