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DOI	10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.02.003
	Pareto-optimal MPSA-MGGP: A new gene-annealing model for monthly rainfall forecasting
	Mehr, Ali Danandeh 1; Jabarnejad, Masood 2; Nourani, Vahid 3
通讯作者	Mehr, Ali Danandeh
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
ISSN	0022-1694
EISSN	1879-2707
出版年	2019
卷号	571 页码:406-415
英文摘要	Rainfall is considered the hardest weather variable to forecast, and its cause-effect relationships often cannot be expressed in simple or complex mathematical forms. This study introduces a novel hybrid model to month ahead forecasting monthly rainfall amounts which is motivated to be used in semi-arid basins. The new approach, called MPSA-MGGP, is based on integrating multi-period simulated annealing (MPSA) optimizer with multigene genetic programming (MGGP) symbolic regression so that the hybrid model reflects the periodic patterns in rainfall time series into a Pareto-optimal multigene forecasting equation. The model was trained and verified using observed rainfall at two meteorology stations located in north-west of Iran. The model accuracy was also cross-validated against two benchmarks: conventional genetic programming (GP) and MGGP. The results indicated that the proposed gene-annealing model provides slight to moderate decline in absolute error as well as noteworthy augment in Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency. Promising efficiency together with parsimonious structure endorse the proposed model to be used for monthly rainfall forecasting in practice, particularly in semiarid regions.
英文关键词	Rainfall Time series forecasting multigene genetic programming Simulated annealing Semiarid region
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	Turkey ; Iran
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000462692100034
WOS关键词	PROGRAMMING-MODEL ; STOCHASTIC-MODELS ; PREDICTION ; WAVELET ; OPTIMIZATION ; SELECTION ; NETWORK
WOS类目	Engineering, Civil ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/217137
作者单位	1.Antalya Bilim Univ, Dept Civil Engn, Fac Engn, Antalya, Turkey; 2.Antalya Bilim Univ, Dept Ind Engn, Fac Engn, Antalya, Turkey; 3.Univ Tabriz, Dept Water Resources Engn, Fac Civil Engn, Tabriz, Iran
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mehr, Ali Danandeh,Jabarnejad, Masood,Nourani, Vahid. Pareto-optimal MPSA-MGGP: A new gene-annealing model for monthly rainfall forecasting[J],2019,571:406-415.
APA	Mehr, Ali Danandeh,Jabarnejad, Masood,&Nourani, Vahid.(2019).Pareto-optimal MPSA-MGGP: A new gene-annealing model for monthly rainfall forecasting.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,571,406-415.
MLA	Mehr, Ali Danandeh,et al."Pareto-optimal MPSA-MGGP: A new gene-annealing model for monthly rainfall forecasting".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 571(2019):406-415.