干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Risks to carbon dynamics in semi-arid woodlands of eastern Australia under current and future climates

Arid

DOI	10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.01.076
	Risks to carbon dynamics in semi-arid woodlands of eastern Australia under current and future climates
	Nolan, Rachael H.1,2; Sinclair, Jennifer 1,3; Waters, Cathleen M.4; Mitchell, Patrick J.5; Eldridge, David J.6; Paul, Keryn, I 7; Roxburgh, Stephen 7; Butler, Don W.8; Ramp, Daniel 1
通讯作者	Nolan, Rachael H.
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT
ISSN	0301-4797
EISSN	1095-8630
出版年	2019
卷号	235 页码:500-510
英文摘要	Extreme disturbance events, such as wildfire and drought, have large impacts on carbon storage and sequestration of forests and woodlands globally. Here, we present a modelling approach that assesses the relative impact of disturbances on carbon storage and sequestration, and how this will alter under climate change. Our case study is semi-arid Australia where large areas of land are managed to offset over 122 million tonnes of anthropogenic carbon emissions over a 100-year period. These carbon offsets include mature vegetation that has been protected from clearing and regenerating vegetation on degraded agricultural land. We use a Bayesian Network model to combine multiple probabilistic models of the risk posed by fire, drought, grazing and recruitment failure to carbon dynamics. The model is parameterised from a review of relevant literature and additional quantitative analyses presented here. We found that the risk of vegetation becoming a net source of carbon due to a mortality event, or failing to realise maximum sequestration potential, through recruitment failure in regenerating vegetation, was primarily a function of rainfall in this semi-arid environment. However, the relative size of an emissions event varied across vegetation communities depending on plant attributes, specifically resprouting capacity. Modelled climate change effects were variable, depending on the climate change projection used. Under 'best-case' or 'most-likely' climate scenarios for 2050, similar or increased projections of mean annual precipitation, associated with a build-up of fuel, were expected to drive an increase in fire activity (a 40-160% increase), but a decrease in drought (a 20-35% decrease). Under a 'worst-case' climate scenario, fire activity was expected to decline (a 37% decrease), but drought conditions remain similar (a 5% decrease). These projected changes to the frequency of drought and fire increase the risk that vegetation used for carbon offsetting will fail to provide anticipated amounts of carbon abatement over their lifetime.
英文关键词	Wildfire Drought Grazing Climate change Forest Mortality
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	Australia
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000459527800054
WOS关键词	RECRUITMENT PATTERNS ; ECOSYSTEM STRUCTURE ; TRANSITION MODELS ; FIRE ; ZONE ; DROUGHT ; VEGETATION ; MALLEE ; MULGA ; TREES
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
来源机构	Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/216959
作者单位	1.Univ Technol Sydney, Sch Life Sci, POB 123, Broadway, NSW 2007, Australia; 2.Western Sydney Univ, Hawkesbury Inst Environm, Locked Bag 1797, Penrith, NSW 2751, Australia; 3.GreenCollar, Sydney, NSW 2000, Australia; 4.Climate Res, New South Wales Dept Primary Ind, Orange, NSW 2800, Australia; 5.CSIRO Land & Water, Sandy Bay, Tas 7005, Australia; 6.Univ New South Wales, Sch Biol Earth & Environm Sci, Ctr Ecosyst Sci, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia; 7.CSIRO Land & Water Flagship, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia; 8.Queensland Herbarium, Toowong, Qld 4066, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Nolan, Rachael H.,Sinclair, Jennifer,Waters, Cathleen M.,et al. Risks to carbon dynamics in semi-arid woodlands of eastern Australia under current and future climates[J]. Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation,2019,235:500-510.
APA	Nolan, Rachael H..,Sinclair, Jennifer.,Waters, Cathleen M..,Mitchell, Patrick J..,Eldridge, David J..,...&Ramp, Daniel.(2019).Risks to carbon dynamics in semi-arid woodlands of eastern Australia under current and future climates.JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT,235,500-510.
MLA	Nolan, Rachael H.,et al."Risks to carbon dynamics in semi-arid woodlands of eastern Australia under current and future climates".JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 235(2019):500-510.