干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): A cultivated area forecasting approach in artificial oases under climate change and human activities

Arid

DOI	10.1007/s40333-019-0056-z
	A cultivated area forecasting approach in artificial oases under climate change and human activities
	Zhang, Shaobo 1; Chen, Fulong 2; Chen, Jie 1; Wang, Jing 2; Li, Shaofei 3; Long, Aihua 2,4
通讯作者	Chen, Fulong
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF ARID LAND
ISSN	1674-6767
EISSN	2194-7783
出版年	2019
卷号	11 期号:3 页码:400-418
英文摘要	The cultivated area in artificial oases is deeply influenced by global climate change and human activities. Thus, forecasting cultivated area in artificial oases under climate change and human activities is of great significance. In this study, an approach named GD-HM-PSWROAM, consisting of general circulation model downscaling (GD), hydrological model (HM), and planting structure and water resource optimal allocation model (PSWROAM), was developed and applied in the irrigation district of the Manas River Basin in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China to forecast the cultivated area tendency. Furthermore, the catchment export of the MIKE11 HD/NAM model was set to the Kensiwate hydrological station. The results show that the downscaling effects of temperature can be fairly satisfying, while those of precipitation may be not satisfying but acceptable. Simulation capacity of the MIKE11 HD/NAM model on the discharge in the Kensiwate hydrological station can meet the requirements of running the PSWROAM. The accuracy of the PSWROAM indicated that this model can perform well in predicting the change of cultivated area at the decadal scale. The cultivated area in the Manas River Basin under current human activities may be generally decreasing due to the climate change. But the adverse effects of climate change can be weakened or even eliminated through positive human activities. The cultivated area in the Manas River Basin may even be increasing under assumed human activities and future climate scenarios. The effects of human activities in the future can be generally predicted and quantified according to the cultivated area trends under current human activities and the situations in the study area. Overall, it is rational and acceptable to forecast the cultivated area tendency in artificial oases under future climate change and human activities through the GD-HM-PSWROAM approach.
英文关键词	GCM downscaling hydrological model cultivated area climate change human activities Manas River Basin
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	Peoples R China
开放获取类型	Bronze
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000474563200007
WOS关键词	TARIM RIVER-BASIN ; WATER-RESOURCES ; GLACIER CHANGES ; SWAT MODEL ; MIKE SHE ; RUNOFF ; SYSTEM ; VARIABILITY ; CALIBRATION ; MANAGEMENT
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/216789
作者单位	1.Wuhan Univ, Sch Water Resources & Hydropower Engn, Wuhan 430081, Hubei, Peoples R China; 2.Shihezi Univ, Coll Water Conservancy Architectural Engn, Shihezi 832000, Peoples R China; 3.Tianjin Agr Univ, Dept Hydraul Engn, Tianjin 300384, Peoples R China; 4.China Inst Water Resources & Hydropower Res, State Key Lab Simulat & Regulat Water Cycle River, Beijing 100038, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, Shaobo,Chen, Fulong,Chen, Jie,et al. A cultivated area forecasting approach in artificial oases under climate change and human activities[J],2019,11(3):400-418.
APA	Zhang, Shaobo,Chen, Fulong,Chen, Jie,Wang, Jing,Li, Shaofei,&Long, Aihua.(2019).A cultivated area forecasting approach in artificial oases under climate change and human activities.JOURNAL OF ARID LAND,11(3),400-418.
MLA	Zhang, Shaobo,et al."A cultivated area forecasting approach in artificial oases under climate change and human activities".JOURNAL OF ARID LAND 11.3(2019):400-418.