Arid
DOI10.1002/joc.6269
Extreme precipitation events under climate change in the Iberian Peninsula
Pereira, Susana Cardoso1; Marta-Almeida, Martinho2; Carvalho, Ana C.3; Rocha, Alfredo1
通讯作者Pereira, Susana Cardoso
来源期刊INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN0899-8418
EISSN1097-0088
出版年2020
卷号40期号:2页码:1255-1278
英文摘要Precipitation is one of the most important atmospheric variables to assess, particularly in the context of climate change. This study evaluates future changes in precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula (IP) under the RCP8.5 scenario. Changes are assessed for two future climate periods namely (2046-2065) and (2081-2100), relative to a recent reference climate (1986-2005). Here we introduce the concept of precipitation episodes (PEs) and estimate their statistical properties for the present climate and, their changes for future climate scenarios. PEs are defined by considering a full range of durations as well as intensities. This constitutes a novel approach to estimate changes with relevance, for example, for water resources applications. The climate simulations are performed with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. These are compared with an ensemble of other similar simulations from the Coordinated Downscaling Experiment initiative. This was done to evaluate the performance of the WRF model and also to estimate uncertainty of the derived future projections. Since models may present systematic errors, results from all simulations were previously bias corrected relative to observations using the same quantile mapping method. Under climate change, a great part of the region is expected to experience reduced annual precipitation of approximately 20-40% and reaching 80% in summer by the end of the XXI century. For the PEs, a large reduction in the average number of days and duration of all types of PEs is expected across all seasons and regions. The average intensity of episodes is projected to increase in winter and spring and decrease in summer. These results imply that climate change will likely influence precipitation and precipitation extremes in the 21st century, mostly in southern areas. These, together with projected warming may amplify desertification already taking place in the southern regions of the IP and cause stresses to water resources.
英文关键词bias correction climate change Iberian Peninsula precipitation episodes regional climate modelling WRF model
类型Article
语种英语
国家Portugal ; Spain ; Sweden
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000484748900001
WOS关键词EURO-CORDEX ; BIAS-CORRECTION ; CHANGE PROJECTIONS ; WRF MODEL ; INDEXES ; SIMULATIONS ; ENSEMBLE ; TEMPERATURE ; SENSITIVITY ; SCENARIOS
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/216391
作者单位1.Univ Aveiro, Dept Phys, CESAM, Aveiro, Portugal;
2.Inst Espanol Oceanog, Ctr Oceanog A Coruna, Galicia, Spain;
3.SMHI, Res Dept, Unit Air Qual Res, Norrkoping, Sweden
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GB/T 7714
Pereira, Susana Cardoso,Marta-Almeida, Martinho,Carvalho, Ana C.,et al. Extreme precipitation events under climate change in the Iberian Peninsula[J],2020,40(2):1255-1278.
APA Pereira, Susana Cardoso,Marta-Almeida, Martinho,Carvalho, Ana C.,&Rocha, Alfredo.(2020).Extreme precipitation events under climate change in the Iberian Peninsula.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,40(2),1255-1278.
MLA Pereira, Susana Cardoso,et al."Extreme precipitation events under climate change in the Iberian Peninsula".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 40.2(2020):1255-1278.
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