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DOI	10.1002/joc.6269
	Extreme precipitation events under climate change in the Iberian Peninsula
	Pereira, Susana Cardoso 1; Marta-Almeida, Martinho 2; Carvalho, Ana C.3; Rocha, Alfredo 1
通讯作者	Pereira, Susana Cardoso
来源期刊	INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN	0899-8418
EISSN	1097-0088
出版年	2020
卷号	40 期号:2 页码:1255-1278
英文摘要	Precipitation is one of the most important atmospheric variables to assess, particularly in the context of climate change. This study evaluates future changes in precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula (IP) under the RCP8.5 scenario. Changes are assessed for two future climate periods namely (2046-2065) and (2081-2100), relative to a recent reference climate (1986-2005). Here we introduce the concept of precipitation episodes (PEs) and estimate their statistical properties for the present climate and, their changes for future climate scenarios. PEs are defined by considering a full range of durations as well as intensities. This constitutes a novel approach to estimate changes with relevance, for example, for water resources applications. The climate simulations are performed with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. These are compared with an ensemble of other similar simulations from the Coordinated Downscaling Experiment initiative. This was done to evaluate the performance of the WRF model and also to estimate uncertainty of the derived future projections. Since models may present systematic errors, results from all simulations were previously bias corrected relative to observations using the same quantile mapping method. Under climate change, a great part of the region is expected to experience reduced annual precipitation of approximately 20-40% and reaching 80% in summer by the end of the XXI century. For the PEs, a large reduction in the average number of days and duration of all types of PEs is expected across all seasons and regions. The average intensity of episodes is projected to increase in winter and spring and decrease in summer. These results imply that climate change will likely influence precipitation and precipitation extremes in the 21st century, mostly in southern areas. These, together with projected warming may amplify desertification already taking place in the southern regions of the IP and cause stresses to water resources.
英文关键词	bias correction climate change Iberian Peninsula precipitation episodes regional climate modelling WRF model
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	Portugal ; Spain ; Sweden
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000484748900001
WOS关键词	EURO-CORDEX ; BIAS-CORRECTION ; CHANGE PROJECTIONS ; WRF MODEL ; INDEXES ; SIMULATIONS ; ENSEMBLE ; TEMPERATURE ; SENSITIVITY ; SCENARIOS
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/216391
作者单位	1.Univ Aveiro, Dept Phys, CESAM, Aveiro, Portugal; 2.Inst Espanol Oceanog, Ctr Oceanog A Coruna, Galicia, Spain; 3.SMHI, Res Dept, Unit Air Qual Res, Norrkoping, Sweden
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Pereira, Susana Cardoso,Marta-Almeida, Martinho,Carvalho, Ana C.,et al. Extreme precipitation events under climate change in the Iberian Peninsula[J],2020,40(2):1255-1278.
APA	Pereira, Susana Cardoso,Marta-Almeida, Martinho,Carvalho, Ana C.,&Rocha, Alfredo.(2020).Extreme precipitation events under climate change in the Iberian Peninsula.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,40(2),1255-1278.
MLA	Pereira, Susana Cardoso,et al."Extreme precipitation events under climate change in the Iberian Peninsula".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 40.2(2020):1255-1278.