干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Spatiotemporal characteristics of future changes in precipitation and temperature in Central Asia

Arid

DOI	10.1002/joc.5901
	Spatiotemporal characteristics of future changes in precipitation and temperature in Central Asia
	Luo, Min 1,2,3,4,5; Liu, Tie 1; Meng, Fanhao 1,3; Duan, Yongchao 1,2,3,4,5; Bao, Anming1 ; Frankl, Amaury 2,6; De Maeyer, Philippe 2,4,5
通讯作者	Liu, Tie
来源期刊	INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN	0899-8418
EISSN	1097-0088
出版年	2019
卷号	39 期号:3 页码:1571-1588
英文摘要	The arid and semi-arid areas in Central Asia have scarce water resources and fragile ecosystems that are especially sensitive and vulnerable to climate change. Reliable information regarding future projections of change in climate is crucial for long-term planning of water resources management and structural adjustment of agriculture in this region. However, the low-density meteorological observation network brings great challenges for investigating the effects of climate variations. In this study, variations of precipitation and temperature in Central Asia were examined by a combination of gridded climate dataset of the Climate Research Unit and the latest general circulation models (GCMs) under a representative concentration pathway 4.5. Three downscaling methods, Delta, Advanced Delta, and Bayesian model averaging (BMA) methods, translate the coarse GCMs to local climatic variations for the period 2021-2060 relative to 1965-2004. Major results suggested that the Advanced Delta and BMA methods outperformed the Delta method in precipitation downscaling. Projected precipitation exhibited a general increasing trend at a rate of 4.63 mm/decade for entire Central Asia with strong spatiotemporal heterogeneity. While a declining trend was observed in the southwestern and central parts of Central Asia in summer. The projected temperature was revealed an obvious ascending at 0.37 degrees C/decade, while the warming rate accelerated in higher latitude and mountainous areas. [Correction added on 03 December 2018, after first online publication: The preceding statement has been corrected in this version.] The surface land coverage had significant effects on the variations of precipitation and temperature, respectively. The driven factors of local climate were suggested by analysing the relationships between climate variations and large-scale atmospheric circulation fields anomalies. The findings of this study aims to provide useful information to improve our understanding for future climate change and benefit local decision makers.
英文关键词	Central Asia climate change downscaling general circulation model
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	Peoples R China ; Belgium
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000461606600029
WOS关键词	RECENT CLIMATE-CHANGE ; GLOBAL PRECIPITATION ; VEGETATION DYNAMICS ; VARIABILITY ; SUMMER ; SIMULATION ; RESPONSES ; ENSEMBLE ; RAINFALL ; PROJECTIONS
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
来源机构	中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/216374
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, State Key Lab Desert & Oasis Ecol, Urumqi 830011, Peoples R China; 2.Univ Ghent, Dept Geog, Ghent, Belgium; 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China; 4.Sino Belgian Joint Lab Geoinformat, Urumqi, Peoples R China; 5.Sino Belgian Joint Lab Geoinformat, Ghent, Belgium; 6.Res Fund Flanders FWO, Brussels, Belgium
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Luo, Min,Liu, Tie,Meng, Fanhao,et al. Spatiotemporal characteristics of future changes in precipitation and temperature in Central Asia[J]. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,2019,39(3):1571-1588.
APA	Luo, Min.,Liu, Tie.,Meng, Fanhao.,Duan, Yongchao.,Bao, Anming.,...&De Maeyer, Philippe.(2019).Spatiotemporal characteristics of future changes in precipitation and temperature in Central Asia.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,39(3),1571-1588.
MLA	Luo, Min,et al."Spatiotemporal characteristics of future changes in precipitation and temperature in Central Asia".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 39.3(2019):1571-1588.